大华北地区地震灾害与风险评估

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1、第36卷第1期地震工程学报Vo1．36No．12014年3月CHINAEARTHQUAKEENGINEERINGJOURNALMarch．2O14大华北地区地震灾害与风险评估①刘静伟，王振明，谢富仁，吕悦军(1．中国地震局地壳应力研究所，北京100085；2．美国肯塔基州地质调查局，列克星顿，肯塔基州40506)摘要：地震灾害与风险是两个本质不同的概念：地震灾害是指由地震所引起的自然现象，而地震风险是指由地震灾害所导致人类及其环境破坏的可能性。在考虑抗震设防时，地震风险是更为重要的因素。本文首先对地震灾

2、害与风险这两个概念进行探讨，然后利用500年的历史地震烈度资料对大华北地区的地震灾害和风险进行评估。研究结果表明，大华北地区具有较高的地震灾害和地震风险，尤其是鄂尔多斯周缘和京津唐地区；研究区内很多城市现行的抗震设防要求可能偏低。关键词：大华北地区；地震灾害；地震风险；灾害曲线；地震烈度；抗震设防中图分类号：P315．941文献标志码：A文章编号：1000—0844(2014)01—0134—10D0I：10．3969／j．issn．1000—0844．2014．01．0134SeismicHazard

3、andRiskAssessmentsinNorthChinaBasedontheHistoricalIntensityObservationsLIUJing—Wei，WANGZhen—Ming。，XIEFu—Ren，LVYue—Jun(1．InstituteofCrustalDynamics，CEA。Beijing100085。China；2．KentuckyGeologicalSurvey。Lexington，Kentucky40506，USA)Abstract：Seismichazardandris

4、karetwoimportantconceptsinengineeringdesignand'otherpoli—cyconsiderations．Althoughseismichazardandriskhaveoftenbeenusedinterchangeab1y，theyarefundamentallydifferent．Furthermore，seismicriskismoreimportantinengineeringdesignandotherpolicyconsiderations．Sei

5、smichazarddescribesthenaturalphenomenonorpropertyofanearthquake，whereasseismicriskdescribestheprobabilityoflossordamagethatcouldbecausedbyaseismichazard．Seismichazardassessmentisaneffortbyearthscientiststoquantifyseismichazardanditsassociateduncertaintyi

6、ntimeandspacefrominstrumental，historical，andgeolog—icalobservations．Seismicriskquantificationiscomplicatedandsomewhatsubjectivebecauseitde—pendsonthedesiredmeasurementofconsequence(i．e．，outcomeofphysicalinteractionbetweentheseismichazardandexposure)andho

7、wthehazardandexposureinteractintimeandspace．Seis—micriskassessmentcanbeexpressedinmanydifferentwaysfordifferentusers．Amodelforesti—matingseismicriskmustmakeassumptionstodescribehowthehazardandexposureinteractintime．Inthispaper，wefirstdiscussthebasicconce

8、ptsofseismichazardandrisk，andthenesti—matedthemfrom500一yearintensityobservationsforNorthChina．Thekeyelementofthismethodistoestablishthefrequency—intensitycurvethatdescribestherelationshipbetweenintensityandannualfrequency(