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1、外文翻译原文Non-performingloansprobabilityInthecommercialbankingsystemMaterialSource:EmpiricalEconomics,PhysicalVerlag,April05,2002Author:BernardoMaggi,MarcoGuidaThisarticledealswiththeproblemofloansthatdonotperform(NPLfromnowon).Thoughsuchaproblemisdatedbackinthelitera
2、tureonbankingsystems,littlespacehasbeengiventoitforthedifficultybothtoobtainthenecessarydataandtoembeditappropriatelyinthemethodologytillnowdevelopedonthebankefficiency.Asfortheformer,acknowledgeddatabasesrevealtheabsenceofinformationonthemostimportantvariablefort
3、hisstudy,i.e.thebadloans.Asforthelatter,thequestionishowtoaccountforthebadloansinaspecificfunctiontoobtainreasonableresultsfromtheefficiencypointofview.Thepuzzleisthat,asarguedinBergerandDeYoung(1997),thereexistssimultaneitybetweenNPLandinefficiencybutthelinkrepre
4、sentedbybadloansistobeexcludedfromtheexplicativevariablesofthefunctionusedtoavoiddiminishingtheinefficiencymeasuredintheregressionresiduals,inthecaseofbadloansnotduetointernalfactors.Inthisrespect,theattemptstoaddresstheproblem,suchasthatofHughesandMester(1993),th
5、oughpioneering,failinthatNPLareincludedasawholeincostfunctionwithoutdistinguishingbetweenbadloansduetobadmanagementandthoseduetoexternalfactorswhich,notdependingonthebank,shouldnotbecountedintheinefficiency.Asaconsequence,onlytheformereffectshouldbeincludedintheco
6、stfunctionspecification.Fromtheirside,BergerandDeYoung(1997)focusedonthisproblembutwithoutmodelingtheNPLinthecostfunction,rathertheyusethecostfunctiononlytocomputetheinefficiencyandthenleavingtoacausalityanalysisthejobofexplainingtheirrelationship.However,theconcl
7、usionsfromthismethod,thoughcorrect,arenotexhaustiveinthat:firsstateonlygrossstatisticalassociationandsecondlyaregenerali.e.arenotreferabletoaspecificbank.OnlyPastor(1999,2002)andPastorandSerrano(2005)facefrontallytheproblemanddistinguishbetweenNPLderivingfrominter
8、nalandexternalcauses,calculatingefficiencyaccordingly.However,Pastor(1999,2002)usesanon-parametricapproachwiththecaveatsimpliedforthedeterministictechni