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1、ContentsExecutivesummary:2020,theyearofrecovery3Topicalessays8Tradewar:Stateofplay9Dealingwiththenextdownturn:Policyoptions13Brexit:Stateofplay172020USPresidentialandCongressionalelections19HastradedivergencegivenrisetoinvestmentdivergenceinAsia?28Marketsoutloo
2、k31Globalinterestrateoutlook:2020upside,butstructurallystilllow32FXoutlook:PeakUSdollarhasarrived36Oilandnaturalgasoutlook:Alleyesondemand38Metalsandbulkcommoditiesoutlook:Industrialbears43Equityoutlook:Thebullmarketcontinues47Individualcountryeconomicoutlook49
3、UnitedStates:Midyearimprovementondiminishingtraderisks50Canada:Slowergrowthahead54China:Gettingworsebeforegettingbetter58Eurozone:Modestrecovery,butno2017re-run62Japan:Inflationtargettoremainelusive65India:Stimulustosupportagradualrecovery68Australia:Gentlestof
4、gentleturningpoints71NewZealand:Near-termdownside75Forecasttables78Economicandmarketforecasts79Commoditypriceforecasts81RicDeverell+61282324307ric.deverell@macquarie.comHaydenSkilling,CFA+61282322623hayden.skilling@macquarie.comExecutivesummary:2020,theyearofr
5、ecoveryStandingatthecrossroads2019hasbeenamost“dangerousyear”,withthetradeandtechnologyconflictbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaneverfarfromtheheadlines.Thenewtariffshavehadamajorimpactonglobaltradeandindustrialproduction,withtheassociateduncertaintyalsoweighingon
6、businessinvestment,whichisnowfallingmodestlyinthemajoreconomies.However,incontrast,consumptionhassofarremainedrelativelyresilient.Pullingthedivergenttrendstogether,aswegotoprint,globalGDPgrowthlookstobestillslowing,withgrowthlikelytoprintatalittlebelow2%saarinQ
7、4,downfrom2¼%inQ3andnearthebottomoftherangeseeninthepast10years.This,alongwiththefactthattheFednowcastingmodelsareestimatingthatUSgrowthmomentumhasslowedtoalittlebelow1%inQ4,suggeststhatthenextthreemonthswillbecritical,withanyfurtherdeteriorationlikelytoseerece
8、ssionfearsreturntocentrestage.Fig1GlobalGDPgrowthhascontinuedtoslowintoQ4Fig2However,thereareearly‘greenshoots’intheindustrialsector%GlobalGrowth&PMIGDPgrowth,year-ended(LH
