0257577_A10DE_wooldridge_introductory_econometrics_a_modern_approach_2e.pdf

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1、d7/14/994:34PMPage1ChapterOneTheNatureofEconometricsandEconomicDatahapter1discussesthescopeofeconometricsandraisesgeneralissuesthatresultCfromtheapplicationofeconometricmethods.Section1.3examinesthekindsofdatasetsthatareusedinbusiness,economics,andothersocialsciences.Section1.

2、4providesanintuitivediscussionofthedifficultiesassociatedwiththeinferenceofcausalityinthesocialsciences.1.1WHATISECONOMETRICS?Imaginethatyouarehiredbyyourstategovernmenttoevaluatetheeffectivenessofapubliclyfundedjobtrainingprogram.Supposethisprogramteachesworkersvariouswaystou

3、secomputersinthemanufacturingprocess.Thetwenty-weekprogramofferscoursesduringnonworkinghours.Anyhourlymanufacturingworkermayparticipate,andenrollmentinallorpartoftheprogramisvoluntary.Youaretodeterminewhat,ifany,effectthetrainingprogramhasoneachworker’ssubsequenthourlywage.Now

4、supposeyouworkforaninvestmentbank.Youaretostudythereturnsondif-ferentinvestmentstrategiesinvolvingshort-termU.S.treasurybillstodecidewhethertheycomplywithimpliedeconomictheories.Thetaskofansweringsuchquestionsmayseemdauntingatfirst.Atthispoint,youmayonlyhaveavagueideaofthekind

5、ofdatayouwouldneedtocollect.Bytheendofthisintroductoryeconometricscourse,youshouldknowhowtouseecono-metricmethodstoformallyevaluateajobtrainingprogramortotestasimpleeco-nomictheory.Econometricsisbaseduponthedevelopmentofstatisticalmethodsforestimatingeconomicrelationships,test

6、ingeconomictheories,andevaluatingandimplementinggovernmentandbusinesspolicy.Themostcommonapplicationofeconometricsistheforecastingofsuchimportantmacroeconomicvariablesasinterestrates,inflationrates,andgrossdomesticproduct.Whileforecastsofeconomicindicatorsarehighlyvisibleandar

7、eoftenwidelypublished,econometricmethodscanbeusedineconomicareasthathavenothingtodowithmacroeconomicforecasting.Forexample,wewillstudytheeffectsofpoliticalcampaignexpendituresonvotingoutcomes.Wewillconsidertheeffectofschoolspendingonstudentperformanceinthefieldofeducation.Inad

8、dition,wewilllearnhowtouseeconometricmethodsforforecastingeco