权力转移理论.ppt

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1、國際關係理論InternationalRelationsTheorySUN,KUO-SHYANG（孫國祥）AssistantProfessorofInstituteofAsia-PacificStudies,NanhuaUniversity（南華大學亞太研究所助理教授）powertransitiontheoryOverviewI. KeycomponentsofPowerTransitionTheory/FundamentalsofInternationalPoliticsII.Cooperation

2、andConflictIII.HistoricalExamples/EmpiricalTestsIV.Diplomacy/PolicyPrescriptionspowertransitiontheoryIntroductionEndofColdWarHowshouldtheUnitedStatesattempttomanageworldpolitics(China)?Howwillcriticalalliances(NATO)evolve?Howcanregionalconflictsbemanage

3、d?Howwillnucleardeterrenceaffectthestabilityofdeterrence?powertransitiontheoryI.KeycomponentsofPowerTransitionTheory.PTtheoryhasfourcentralcomponents:A.    StructureoftheinternationalsystemB.    PowerC.    SatisfactionD.    Alliancespowertransitiontheor

4、yA.TheStructureofPTTheoryAccordingtoPTtheory,theinternationalsystemishierarchicallyorganized.•      Thereisadominantstate,butthestateisnotahegemon.•      Afterthedominantstate,therearegreatpowers,middlepowers,andsmallpowers.•      Thedominantstatesetsth

5、erulesfortheworld.•      Occasionally,somegreatpowersarenotfullyintegratedintothedominantstate’sregime.Theyarepotentialchallengers.Specifically,challengersmusthave80%ormoreofthedominantcountry’spower.•      Therearealsoregionalhierarchies.powertransitio

6、ntheoryB.Power:“theabilitytoimposeonorpersuadeanopponenttocomplywithdemands.”Powerisafunctionofthreekeyelements.• Sizeofpopulation.Populationandgreatpowerstatus.• Economicproductivity.Endogenousgrowththeory.• (Relative)politicalcapacity:“theeffectivenes

7、softhepoliticalsysteminextractingandpoolingindividualcontributionstoadvancenationalgoals.”Countrieswithloweconomicdevelopmenthavedifficultyextractingresourcesfromtheireconomy.Why?powertransitiontheoryC.Dissatisfaction•     Thedominantpowerestablishesthe

8、statusquo(SQ).•     SomegreatpowersaresatisfiedwiththeSQ,othersaredissatisfied.•     Dissatisfactioncanbebasedonhistorical,ideological,religious,territorial,personal,orculturalfactors•     DissatisfiedstateswanttochangetheSQ,orth