P为消费者物价指数.ppt

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1、IntroductionTheLawofOnePricePurchasingPowerParityALong-RunExchangeRateModelBasedonPPPEmpiricalEvidenceonPPPandtheLawofOnePriceExplainingtheProblemswithPPPChapter15PriceLevelsandtheExchangeRateintheLongRunCopyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.1BeyondPurchasingPowerParity:AGeneralModelofLong-RunExchan

2、geRatesInternationalInterestRateDifferencesandtheRealExchangeRateRealInterestParitySummaryAppendix:TheFisherEffect,theInterestRate,andtheExchangeRateUndertheFlexible-PriceMonetaryApproachChapterOrganizationCopyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.2IntroductionThemodeloflong-runexchangeratebehaviorprovi

3、destheframeworkthatactorsinassetmarketsusetoforecastfutureexchangerates.Predictionsaboutlong-runmovementsinexchangeratesareimportantevenintheshortrun.Inthelongrun,nationalpricelevelsplayakeyroleindeterminingbothinterestratesandtherelativepricesatwhichcountries’productsaretraded.Thetheoryofpurchas

4、ingpowerparity(PPP)explainsmovementsintheexchangeratebetweentwocountries’currenciesbychangesinthecountries’pricelevels.Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.3TheLawofOnePriceLawofonepriceIdenticalgoodssoldindifferentcountriesmustsellforthesamepricewhentheirpricesareexpressedintermsofthesamecurrency.

5、Thislawappliesonlyincompetitivemarketsfreeoftransportcostsandofficialbarrierstotrade.Example:Ifthedollar/poundexchangerateis$1.50perpound,asweaterthatsellsfor$45inNewYorkmustsellfor£30inLondon.Copyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.4Itimpliesthatthedollarpriceofgoodiisthesamewhereveritissold:PiUS=(E$

6、/€)x(PiE)where:PiUSisthedollarpriceofgoodiwhensoldintheU.S.PiEisthecorrespondingeuropriceinEuropeE$/€isthedollar/euroexchangerateTheLawofOnePriceCopyright©2003PearsonEducation,Inc.5PurchasingPowerParityTheoryofPurchasingPowerParity(PPP)Theexchangeratebetweentwocounties’currenciesequalstheratiooft

7、hecounties’pricelevels.Itcomparesaveragepricesacrosscountries.Itpredictsadollar/euroexchangerateof:E$/€=PUS/PE(15-1)where:PUSisthedollarpriceofareferencecommoditybasketsoldintheUnitedStatesPEistheeuropriceofthesamebask