野村证券市场周评.pdf

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1、GlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitorNOMURAGLOBALECONOMICSEuroareafiscalroller-coasterPolicymakershaveroiledmarketsastheytrytocraftanewcrisis-resolutionmechanisminafiscalcrisis.Butwethinktheywillkeepthingsontherails.12November2010GLOBALLETTERDATAANDOUTLOOKSQE2hitschop

2、pywaters5ButtheFedisunlikelytochangecourseinresponse.Forecastsummary......................2Ourviewinanutshell.................3REGIONALROUNDUPSEconomicdatacalendar..............4UnitedStatesQEisworking6UnitedStates............................19Contrarytothec

3、laimsofitscritics,QE2startedtoworkevenbeforeitwaslaunched.Europe.....................................22EuropeJapan.......................................26Preparethelifeboats8Today’sEUstatementgoessomewaytowardsoffsettingearliercommunicationerrors.Asia......

4、...................................28JapanEmergingMarkets.....................33Thesustainabilityofcapitalspending10Somecloudsnotwithstanding,weseelimitedriskofcapexlosingmomentum.Contacts...................................46Asiaex-JapanSouthKorea:Twinimbala

5、nces12WithaCAsurplusandhighinflation,weexpectwonappreciationbutratesonhold.EmergingMarketsEEMEA:Fiscalpressurefromtheperiphery14PressuremayriseforfurtherfiscaleffortsasEuropeanperipherywoesresurface.SPECIALTOPICSAustraliaPre-emptingrisinginflation16WeseetheR

6、eserveBankofAustraliapossiblysurprisingwithmoreratehikes.ItalyPoliticalpressuremounts18ButwethinkthegovernmentwillsurviveatleastuntiltheStabilityLawgetsapproved.NomuraSecuritiesInternationalInc.SeeDisclosureAppendixA1fortheAnalystCertificationandOtherImporta

7、ntDisclosuresGlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitorForecastSummaryTheWorldataGlanceRealGDPConsumerPricesPolicyRate%overayearago%overayearago%endofperiod201020112012201020112012201020112012Global4.74.1↑4.43.13.33.2↓2.98↑3.53↑4.05↑Developed2.52.0↑2.4↑1.51.61.40.570.911.2

8、3EmergingMarkets7.3↑6.46.65.1↑5.25.2↓5.76↑6.44↑7.07↑BRICs8.78.08.05.04.8↓4.8↓6.59↑7.197.75Americas3.62.8↑3.1↑2.9↑2.72.5↑1.92↑2.06↑2.36↑UnitedStates*2.72.5↑2.7↑1.71.51.20.130.130.13Canada3.02.32.