中国保险业监管收

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1、GlobalResearch6October2017ChinaInsuranceSectorEquitiesRegulatorytighteningonproduct:assessingimpactChinaInsuranceKelvinChu,CFANear-termheadwindonpremium;long-termpositiveonNBVAnalystOurchannelcheckssuggesttheimplementationofCIRCNotice134(tightening

2、short-kelvin.chu@ubs.comterminvestmentproducts'design)isstrongerthanmarketexpectations.Thisshould+852-29717397accelerateproductreforminthesector.Wenowexpecta5%first-yearpremium(FYP)ArjanvanVeendeclinein18E(8%growthpreviously)butraiseour18ENBVgrowthes

3、timatefromAnalyst20%to22%onproductmiximprovement.Weremainpositiveonthelifesectoras:1)arjan.vanveen@ubs.comrecoveredinterestratefavoursinvestment&reserving;2)protectionproductshave+44-20-75686236growthpotential;and3)despiteastrongYTDperformance,thesec

4、tor'svaluationisXiaoyanCuiundemanding(implying3.5-4.0%investmentyield,~50bpbelownewmoneyyield).AnalystS1460513100002CIRCNotice134:implementationandpotentialimpactxiaoyan.cui@ubssecurities.comCIRCNotice134,implementedon1October,prohibitsnon-protection

5、related+86-213-8668871repaymentinthefirstfiveyearsandsalesofuniversalproductsasariderpolicy.Ourchannelcheckssuggestimplementationhasbeenstrongerthanmarketexpectations.AlongwiththeCIRC'searlierinitiativestighteningshort-termanduniversalproducts,webeli

6、eveinsurerswillhavetotransformtheirproductmixtowardsfurtherprotectionandlongerdurationofsavingsproducts.Weexpectsectornewbusinessvalue(NBV)willlikelyremainresilient(22%growthfor18E)asmarginsimprove.Whataboutliquidityrisk?WeranastresstestoncashflowsIn

7、ourstresstest(assuming40-50%declinein18EFYP),weexpectpremiuminflowstobestillhigherthanoutflows(claims+maturities)atmostlistedinsurers,thankstorenewalpremium(50-60%ofGWP).Anynegativecashflowswouldunlikelyexceed5%oftotalassets,forwhichinsurershavesuffi

8、cientflexibilityintheirbalancesheets.Platforminsurersfocusingonshort-termsavingsproductswillberelativelyvulnerable.Onsolvency,fewersalesoflow-marginproductswouldenhancecapitalefficiency,givenmarketriskaccountsfor60-70%ofrequiredcapital.Anysubstantial