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1、来自www.3722.cn中国最大资料库下载EQUITYRESEARCH23November2010HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSINITIATINGCOVERAGEHongKongPropertyDevelopersInitiationofcoverage:Bubblewrap1-POSITIVEfromN/APositiveviewonHongKongpropertydevelopers:AlthoughpropertypricesareForafulllistofourratings,pr
2、icetargetsandalreadyovervaluedagainstlong-termfundamentals,weexpectthemtoovershoot;earningsinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2lowsupply,agovernmentunwillingtodeflatehouseprices,negativerealmortgageratesandhighlevelsofequityareallsupportiveofhigherpropertyprices,
3、inourHongKongPropertyInvestorsview.Whilealleightdevelopersshouldbenefit,our1-Overweightpicks–SHKP,SinoAndrewLawrenceLandandKerryProperties–reflectourpreferenceforshorter-durationlandbanks+85229033319andthepre-sellingofdevelopments:ie,businessmodelsthatcaptureth
4、elate-cycleandrew.lawrence@barcap.comreturns,whilemanagingtherisksinherentinHongKong’svolatilepropertyprices.BarclaysBank,HongKongPropertypricemomentumremains:Despitethegovernment’srecentmeasures,JonathanHsunegativemortgagerates,abeliefintherenewedinvestmentpot
5、entialofhousingand+85229034732stronghomebuyerconfidencewilllikelyallowpropertypricemomentumtorunforjonathan.hsu@barcap.comanother18-24months.Weforecastresidentialpriceswillincrease10-15%in2011andBarclaysBank,HongKong10-15%in2012:today’sresidentialmarketismoreco
6、mparableto1994/95thantheWendyLuopeakcycleyearsof1996/97,inourview.+85229034673wendy.luo@barcap.comLooktocapturelate-cyclereturns:WhilerisingpropertypricesarepositiveforalleightBarclaysBank,HongKongdevelopers,ourpreferenceisforSHKP,SinoLandandKerry,companiesfocu
7、sedonpre-sales,withshorter-durationlandbanksandafocusonthecash-richupperrungsofthehousingladdertocapturethereturnsandmanagetheinherentrisksofthisstageofthecycle.Our3-UnderweightratingonHangLungProperties(HLP)reflectsthehighexpectationspricedintothestockandthati
8、nvestorshavelargelyignoredthepotentiallandappreciationtax(LAT)liabilitiesofitscommercialpropertiesinChina.USandChinainterest-raterisks:Inthenearterm,higherinterestratesinChi
