数据、模型与决策(运筹学)课后习题和案例答案012.doc

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1、CHAPTER12DECISIONANALYSISReviewQuestions12.1-1Thedecisionalternativesaretodrillforoilortoselltheland.12.1-2Theconsultinggeologistbelievesthatthereis1chancein4ofoilonthetractofland.12.1-3Maxdoesnotputmuchfaithintheassessment.12.1-4Adetailedseismicsurveyofthelandcouldbedonetoobtainmoreinformation.

2、12.1-5Thepossiblestatesofnaturearethepossibleoutcomesoftherandomfactorsthataffectthepayoffthatwouldbeobtainedfromadecisionalternative.12.1-6Priorprobabilitiesaretheestimatedprobabilitiesofthestatesofnaturepriortoobtainingadditionalinformationthroughatestorsurvey.12.1-7Thepayoffsarequantitativeme

3、asuresoftheoutcomesfromadecisionalternativeandastateofnature.Payoffsaregenerallyexpressedinmonetaryterms.12.2-1Themaximaxcriterionidentifiesthemaximumpayoffforeachdecisionalternativeandchoosesthedecisionalternativewiththemaximumofthesemaximumpayoffs.Themaximaxcriterionisfortheeternaloptimist.12.

4、2-2Themaximaxciterioncompletelyignoresthepriorprobabilitiesandignoresallpayoffsexceptforthelargestone.12.2-3Themaximincriterionidentifiestheminimumpayoffforeachdecisionalternativeandchoosesthedecisionalternativewiththemaximumoftheseminimumpayoffs.Themaximincriterionisforthetotalpessimist.12.2-4T

5、hemaximincriterionignoresthepriorprobabilitiesandignoresallpayoffsexceptthemaximinpayoff.12.2-5Themaximumlikelihoodcriterionfocusesonthemostlikelystateofnature,theonewiththelargestpriorprobability.12.2-6Criticismsofthemaximumlikelihoodcriterioninclude:1)thiscriterionchoosesanalternativewithoutco

6、nsideringitspayoffsforstatesofnatureotherthanthemostlikelyone,2)foralternativesthatarenotchosen,thiscriterionignorestheirpayoffsforstatesofnatureotherthanthemostlikelyone,3)ifthedifferencesinthepayoffsforthemostlikelystateofnaturearemuchlessthanforanothersomewhatlikelystateofnature,thenitmightma

7、kesensetofocusonthislatterstateofnatureinstead,and4)iftherearemanystatesofnatureandtheyarenearlyequallylikely,thentheprobabilitythatthemostlikelystateofnaturewillbethetrueoneisfairlylow.12.2-7Bayes’decisionrulesaystochooseth