资源描述：
《巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场货币政策展望：超越美联储-2019080.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FOCUS
2、EMERGINGMARKETSPleaserefertoimportantinformationand1August2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreport™EMECONOMICS
3、EMSTRATEGYEMmonetarypolicyoutlook–LookbeyondtheFedOnesmallstepfortheFed.ItmayseemjustonesmallstepforKEYMESSAGEStheFed,anditcamealongwithahawkishpressconfe
4、renceDespiteahawkishpressconference,theFed’sinaugural(seeUSFOMC–Hawkishcut).Butbeingthefirstinadecade,ratecutthisweekfitsabroaderpictureofeasingamongtheFed’sinauguralratecutthisweekmayprovetobeagiantG10centralbanks.AsforEMs,therate-cuttingseasonisleapforemergingmarkets
5、inthebroaderschemeofthings.alreadyatfullsteamandwillcontinue,wethink.Globalmonetaryeasing.Inrecentmonths,tumblingmarketWeexpectatleast14EMcentralbankstocutratesexpectationsforUSratescoincidedwithexpectationsofeasingbeforetheyear-end,withfurthereasingfromthosewhichinEMs
6、(Fig.1).Inrecentweeks,EMshaveseenaflurryofratehavealreadystartedtocutandlessresistancebythecuts,andweexpectmoretocome(Fig.2).Whilemarketswillmorehawkishones.nowdigesttheFed’shawkishpressconferencethisweek,thebroaderpictureofglobalmonetaryeasingremains.BeyondFedeasing,l
7、ocalconditionspavethewayforDomesticconditionswithinEMsargueforratecuts.BeyondmoremonetarystimulusacrossEMs,andwillhelpFedactionandglobalconditions,lowinflationandslidinggrowthseveralcountriestodeliversizeablecuts,inourview.inEMsarefuellingcallsforratecuts,whilewiderate
8、differentialshelpthecaseforcutstoo,wethink.WithinEMs,narrowercurrentaccountdeficits,softerGDPgrowthandtumblinginflationexpectationsshouldEMeasinghassurprised.WhilewehavelongexpectedEMscontinuetosupportfurthermonetaryeasingahead.tocutrates,thebreadthofeasingsofarthisyea
9、rhasbeenasurprise.Wenowforeseethatatleast14ofthe21EMsthatwetrackwillcutratesthisyear–fourmorethaninourMayassessment.MARKETVIEWSWhilewehavebeenbullishonEMassetssinceQ32018,thepaceofthecurrentrallyincreditandlocalcurrencyrateshasbeentooquickandthesizetoolarge.Inthisenvir
10、onment,theFOMCdecisionhasposedanasymmetricriskforEMassetsintheshortterm–althoughourstructuralbullishviewonEMhasnotcha
