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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsDate27March2020EMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliEconomicsFocus:InAsia,RBIdeliveredratecutsaheadofscheduledmeeting,Strategistbutthereismorefiscalandmonetarysupporttobedoneamidnationwidelock-+1-212-250-7355down.Nextweek'sdata
2、,includingPMIreleases,willrevealtheseverityofJundongZhangeconomicshockoutsideChina,amidtheCovid-19outbreak.AsthenumberofMacroStrategistconfirmedCOVID-19casesrisesinCEEMEA(withoneofthesharpestincreases+1-212-250-9363seeninTurkey),governmentshavebeenforcedtoimplementmorere
3、strictivemeasurestocontrolthespreadofthevirus.Athreeweeklock-downinSouthAfrica,SebastianA.BrownandtheextensionofthenationwidequarantineintheCzechRepublicaresomeofStrategist+1-212-250-8191themoreextremepreventivemeasuresannounced.Governmentsandcentralbanksacrosstheregionh
4、avesteppedupinvariousdegreestosupporteconomies,HongtaoJiangwhichincludesgovernmentbondpurchasesbytheSARBinamajordeviationfromStrategisttheirorthodoxpolicymakingtillnow.Weexpectmonetarypolicytocontinueto+1-212-250-2524provideliquiditythroughavarietyofmeasuresincludingpoli
5、cyratecuts,bondJulianaLeepurchases,FXintervention,etcacrosstheregioninthecomingperiod.ThemajorChiefEconomistexceptiontothisbeingtheCBRwhichlookssettokeepratesonholdatleasttillthe+852-2203-8312shocksubsides,andcontinuestofocusonFXsalestolimitRUBvolatility.InLatAm,KubilayO
6、zturkupcomingdatainBrazildonotyetreflecttheimpactofthepandemic-focusonChiefEconomistcontagionandpolitics.Mexicohasalightweekintermsofdatasomostofthe+44-20-754-55157attentionwillbeonBanxico’sexpectationssurvey.Argentina’soutputduringDavidPetitcolinJanuaryshouldhavecontrac
7、ted1%y/ydrivenmainlybymanufacturingproductionStrategist-abadstartingpoint.WeexpectunemploymentinChiletohaverisento7.6%in+44-0-207547-6168February,IPtoriseto2%y/y,andforImacectoriseto1.5%y/yonfewerriotsandChristianWietoskatheextrabusinessday.March’sinflationinColombiashou
8、ldriseto3.74%y/ydrivenStrategistbynon-tradeableinflationwhileinPeru,weexpectaninflationprintof1.6%y/y+4
