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1、AbstractAftermorethantenyearsofdevelopment,thereisaseriesofbreakthroughinChina'sfixturesmarket.Marketstandardizationdegreeandtheinnerrunningmechanismarerising,themarketfunctionalsograduallyplayanimportantrole,andtheypromotethesteadydevelopmentofChineseeconomy.Agr
2、iculturalproductsfuturesastheoneofthefuturesmarket,notonlyhasthegeneralmerchandiseproperty,atthesametimealsohasitsownspecialproperties.Thefuturesmarketplaysaveryimportantroleintheworldmarketsofagriculturalproductsforproduction,circulationandconsumption.Soybeanast
3、hefirstlistedvarietiesinChina'sagriculturalproductfuturesmarket,hasapivotalroleforsoybeanmealandsoybeanoilfiituresmarket,therefore,researchandanalysistheinfluencefactorsofsoybeanfuturespricesisimportant.Thispaperonthequalitativeanalysistheinfluencingfactorsofsoyb
4、eanfuturesprices,startingfromthefundamentalsofacomprehensiveanalysisofvariousinfluencefactorsofsoybeanfuturespricesofpositiveornegativeimpact.Specificanalysishowthevariousinfluencefactorsofsoybeanfuturesprices,andseparatelytoeachinfluencefactorsareanalyzedandther
5、esearch.Summaryitisconcludedthatthefourmajorfactorsinfluencingthesoybeanfuturesprices:themacrofactor,supplyanddemandfactor,marketfactorandotherfactors.Thensubdividedfromthefouraspectsarediscussedanumberofspecificfactors.Byanalyzingthegeneralsituationofsoybeanmark
6、etbothChinaandothercountriescanbefoundthatsoybeanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandmoreseriousinourcountry,whichdependsonforeignsoybean(suchasU.S.soybeans，，，factorsarerespectivelypriceindicesofmeansofagriculturalproduction,USDCNYexchangerate,internationalcrudeoilpri
7、ces，，目录職研究背景研究内容研宄意义研宄方法第二章文献综述期货价格理论基础基差理论理性预期价格理论均衡价格理论持有成本理论国内外大豆期货价格影响研宄现状大豆期货价格影响因素大豆期货与现货价格关系国际大豆期货价格与我国大豆期货价格关系研宄第三章国内外大豆市场分析我国大豆期货市场分析我国大豆市场分析我国大豆期货交易我国大豆供求分析国际大豆期货市场分析！国际大豆市场分析国际大豆期货交易国际大豆供求分析第四章大豆期货价格影响因素分析宏观经济因素我国国家政策4.1.2市场供求报告美元汇率国际原油价格大豆供求关系大豆生产分析大豆
8、消费分析大豆库存分析大豆进出口分析大豆市场因素大豆现货价格大豆生产成本衍生品的价格支撑其他替代品比价其他因素天气、季节因素种植面积心理因素大豆生物用途开发第五章我国大豆期货价格影响因素实证研宄数据获取变量的选择和处理数据来源数据分析工具和方法大豆期货价格的主成分分析数据标准化与矩阵构造主成分分析法处理过程及结果第六章
