背景PPT模板紫色条纹背景PPT模板课件.ppt

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1、INDIA’SFUTURE29January2007RBRoyChoudhuryMemoriallectureMumbaiEventhoughtheworldhasjustdiscoveredit,theIndiagrowthstoryisnotnew.Ithasbeengoingonfor25yearsoldWhatistheIndiastory?1)RisingGDPgrowth%averageannualGDPgrowth1900–19501.01950–19803.51980–20026.02002–20068.0Sources:1900-1990:AngusMaddis

2、on(1995),MonitoringtheWorldEconomy,1990-2000:CensusofIndia(2001),2000-2005FinanceMinistryIndiaStory2)Populationgrowthisslowing%averageannualgrowth1901–19501.01951–19802.21981–19902.11991–20001.82001–20101.5Sources:1900-1990:AngusMaddison(1995),MonitoringtheWorldEconomy,1990-2000:CensusofIndia

3、(2001)IndiaStory%1950171990522000652010(proj)80Source:CensusofIndia(2001)3.LiteracyisrisingIndiaStory%MillionPeople19808652000222202010(proj)32368Source:TheConsumingClass,NationalCouncilofAppliedEconomicResearch,20024.MiddleclassisexplodingIndiaStory198046%200026%2010(proj)16%1%ofthepeoplehav

4、ebeencrossingpovertylineeachyearfor20years.Equals~200million.5.PovertyisdecliningIndiaStory6.ProductivityisrisingIndiaStory30%to40%ofGDPgrowthisduetorisingproductivity(US$ppp)1980117820003051Source:WorldBank7.PercapitaincomegainsIndiaStory8.Indiaisnowthe4thlargesteconomyIndiaStoryAnditwillcro

5、ssJapanbetween2012and2014tobecomethe3rdlargestTHEINDIAMODELISUNIQUEDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndiaEastandS.E.AsiaDomesticExportsDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndiaEastandS.E.AsiaDomesticExportsServicesManufacturingDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndiaEastandS.E.AsiaDomesticExportsServicesManufacturingConsumptionInvestmentDRIVERSOFGROW

6、THIndiaEastandS.E.AsiaDomesticExportsServicesManufacturingConsumptionInvestmentHightech,capitalLowtech,labourintensiveindustryintensiveindustryIMPLICATIONSOFINDIAMODELDomesticledInsulationfromglobaldownturnsLessvolatilityIMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODELServicesledHaveweskippedtheindustrialrevolution?H

7、owdowetakepeoplefromfarmstocities?IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODELConsumptionledPeoplefriendly:Consumptionas%ofGDPIndia64Europe58China42Lessinequality–GINIINDEXIndia33U.S41China45Brazil59TheworldneedsanotherbigconsumingeconomyaftertheU.S.ReasonsforSuc