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1、公司财务讲义(英文版)RegressionModelandExpectation(1)Regression:measurerelationshipsbetweenvariableswhenestablishingpolicies.EXPt=b0+b1×USDt-1+b2×GNPt-1+∙∙∙+ut.EXPt=%changeinChinaexportstotheU.S..b0=aconstant.USD=%changeinthevalueofU.S.dollar.b1=regressioncoefficientmeasuring1%chan
2、geinUSDt-1willleadtox%changeinEXPt.GNP=%changeintheU.S.GNP.B2=regressioncoefficientmeasuring1%changeinGNPt-1willleadtox%changeinEXPt.ut=anerrorterm.2RegressionModelandExpectation(2)Ifb0=0.002,b1=0.08,b2=0.36,USD1-1=5%,GNP1-1=-1%,ifinsertthesefiguresintotheregressionmodel,
3、EXP1=3.84%.ItmeansthatoneyearlaterChinaexportstotheU.S.willincrease3.84%.3EquilibriumSpotExchangeRateE(RMB/$1)SE0DQ0Qof$WhenDfor$=Sof$,Q0=theequilibriumquantityof$,E0=theequilibriumspotexchangerate.4PriceElasticityofDemandandFutureSpotExchangeRateE=(ΔQ/Q)/(ΔP/P).E=priceel
4、asticityofdemand.Q=quantityofgoodsdemanded.P=price.ΔQ=changeinQdemandedforachangeinP(ΔP).IfE>1,totalspendinggoesupwhenPdeclines.Efor$couldhaveanimpactonthefuturespotexchangerateof$andRMB.5BalanceofPaymentsandFutureSpotExchangeRate(1)Credits($inflows)Debits($outflows)a:Exp
5、ortsofcivilianb:Importsofciviliangoodsgoodsc:Militarysalesd:MilitarypurchaseabroadabroadTradebalance=a+c-(b+d)6BalanceofPaymentsandFutureSpotExchangeRate(2)e:Exportsofservicef:Importsofservices(investmentincome(investmentincomeandfeesearned,paidout,Chinaforeigntourisminto
6、urismabroad,China,etc.)etc.)g:Netunilateraltransfers(gifts)Currentaccountbalance=a+c+e-(b+d+f+g)7BalanceofPaymentsandFutureSpotExchangeRate(3)h:Foreignprivatei:ChinaprivateinvestmentinChinainvestmentabroadj:Foreignofficialk:ChinesegovernmentlendinginChinalendingabroadCapi
7、talaccountbalance=h+j-(i+k)l:NetincreaseinChinaofficialreservesOfficialreservesbalanceNote:Itemhincludesneterrorsandomissions.8BalanceofPaymentsandFutureSpotExchangeRate(4)IfChinahasatradesurplusagainsttheU.S.,thevalueofRMBwillbehigherthanthatof$,spotratewillchange.9Infla
8、tionandFutureSpotExchangeRateE(RMB/$1)S’E1SE0D’DQ1Qof$IfIFinChina>thatintheU.S.,supplyof$willmov
