中级宏观经济学(英文)11-The-Macroeconomic-Policy-Debate.ppt

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1、IntermediateMacroeconomicsLecture111TheMacroeconomicPolicyDebateWilliamMcChesneyMartinThefed.’sjobistotakeawaythepunchbowljustasthepartygetsgoing联储的工作是在宴会进行时拿走盛满酒的酒杯。Theeconomyisinherentlyunstable.2TheMacroeconomicPolicyDebateMiltonFriedman我们需要的不是把经济之车的方向

2、盘一直调整到不可预期的无规则之路上的高超货币司机．．．Theeconomyisnaturallystable…3TheMacroeconomicPolicyDebateActiveorpassive?Freetousediscretionorfixedpolicyrule?4ShouldPolicyBeActiveorPassive?ActiveIntheabsenceofanactivegovernmentroleintheeconomy,eventsliketheGreatDepressioncoul

3、doccurregularly.fightshocksbyfiscal/monetarypolicy5ShouldPolicyBeActiveorPassive?PassiveLagsinimplementation&effectsofpolicies---insidelag---outsidelagAutomaticstabilizers(incometax;unemploymentinsurance;MartinWeitzman:profitsharing)6ShouldPolicyBeActive

4、orPassive?PassiveEconomicforecastingisdifficult:---indexofleadingindicators---economicmodels7ShouldPolicyBeActiveorPassive?e.g.制造业工人平均生产周数平均每周州失业保障首次申请发放的新建筑许可证敏感原料的价格变动股票价格指数根据通货膨胀调整的货币供给消费者预期指数8ShouldPolicyBeActiveorPassive?Ignorance,expectations,&the“L

5、ucasCritique”RobertLucasExpectationsplayacrucialroleintheeconomyExpectationsdependonpoliciesEstimatingtheeffectofapolicychangerequiresknowinghowpeople’sexpectationswillrespondTraditionalmethodsofpolicyevaluationdonotadequatelytakeintoaccountthisimpactofpo

6、licyonexpectations9TheHistoricalRecordStillcannotsettlethedebate,becauseitisnoteasytoidentifythesourcesofeconomicfluctuations.Multipleinterpretationsarereasonable.Wedidbetter?Orthedatadid?Isthestabilizationoftheeconomyafigmentofthedata?(ChristinaRomer)10S

7、houldPolicybeConductedbyRuleorbyDiscretion?Thedebateoverrulesv.s.discretionisdistinctfromthedebateoverpassivev.s.activepolicy.e.g.MSwillgrowsteadilyat3%peryearMSwillgrowat3%+(u-6%)11ShouldPolicybeConductedbyRuleorbyDiscretion?Whynotbydiscretion?Possiblepo

8、licyrules12WhyNotbyDiscretion?Distrustofpolicymakers&thepoliticalprocessIncompetence---politicalprocessiserratic(reflectsshiftingpowerofspecialinterestgroups)---economyiscomplicatedwhilepoliticiansoftendonothavesuff