calculating and interpreting results

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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc13JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201013:42PrinterName:Hamilton13CalculatingandInterpretingResultsNowthatthevaluationmodeliscomplete,wearereadytoputittowork.Startbytestingthevalidityofthemodel.Evenacarefullyplannedmodelcanhavemechanicalerrorsorerrorsineconomiclogic.Tohelpyoua

2、voidthis,wepresentasetofsystematicchecksandothertricksofthetradethattesttherobustnessofthemodel.Duringthisverification,alsoensurethatkeyratiosareconsistentwiththeeconomicsoftheindustry.Onceyouarecomfortablethatthemodelworks,learntheinsandoutsofyourvaluationbychangingeachforecastinput

3、oneatatime.Examinehoweachpartofyourmodelchanges,anddeterminewhichinputshavethelargesteffectonthecompany’svaluationandwhichhavelittleornoimpact.Sinceforecastinputsarelikelytochangeinconcert,buildasensitivityanalysisthattestsmultiplechangesatatime.Usethisanalysistoprioritizestrategica

4、ctions.Next,todeepentheunderstandingofferedbyyourvaluation,usescenarioanalysis.Startbydeterminingthekeyuncertaintiesthataffectthecompany’sfuture,andusetheseuncertaintiestoconstructmultipleforecasts.Uncertaintycanbeassimpleaswhetheraparticularproductlaunchwillbesuccessful,orascomplex

5、aswhichtechnologywilldominatethemarket.Constructacomprehensiveforecastconsistentwitheachscenario,andweighttheresultingequityvaluationsbytheirprobabilityofoccurring.Scenarioanalysiswillnotonlyguideyourvaluationrange,butalsoinformyourthinkingaboutstrategicactionsandresourceallocationu

6、nderalternativesituations.Finally,weofferamajorcaveat:foramultibusinesscompany,asum-of-the-partsvaluationisoftentheonlywaytoestimateacompany’svalueaccurately.Bythiswemeanvaluingthebusinessunitsseparatelyandag-gregatingtheirvaluetoarriveatthecompany’svalue.Thereasonforusing295P1:OTA/

7、XYZP2:ABCc13JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201013:42PrinterName:Hamilton296CALCULATINGANDINTERPRETINGRESULTSthismethodisthatbusinessunitsoftenhavedifferentfinancialprospects.Averagingacrosstheunitsisnotmeaningfulandwillnotprovideusefulcom-parisons.Weclosethischapterwithadiscussiononhowtovalue

8、acompanybyparts.VER