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1、MANAGEMENTSCIENCEinforms®Vol.56,No.1,January2010,pp.161–175doi10.1287/mnsc.1090.1097issn0025-1909eissn1526-55011056010161©2010INFORMSAQuantitativeMeasurementofRegretTheoryHanBleichrodtErasmusSchoolofEconomics,ErasmusUniversity,3000DRRotterdam,TheN
2、etherlands,bleichrodt@ese.eur.nlAlessandraCilloIESEBusinessSchool,08034Barcelona,Spain,alessandra.cillo@unibocconi.itEnricoDiecidueDecisionSciencesArea,INSEAD,77305FontainebleauCedex,France,enrico.diecidue@insead.eduThispaperintroducesamethodtomeasure
3、regrettheory,apopulartheoryofdecisionunderuncertainty.Regrettheoryallowsforviolationsoftransitivity,anditmayseemparadoxicaltoquantitativelymeasureanintransitivetheory.Weadoptthetrade-offmethodandshowthatitisrobusttoviolationsoftransitivity.Ourmethodma
4、kesnoassumptionsabouttheshapeofthefunctionsreflectingutilityandregret.Itcanbeperformedattheindividuallevel,takingaccountofpreferenceheterogeneity.Ourdatasupportthemainassumptionofregrettheory,thatpeoplearedisproportionatelyaversetolargeregrets,evenwhen
5、event-splittingeffectsarecontrolledfor.Thefindingsarerobust:similarresultswereobtainedintwomeasurementsusingdifferentstimuli.Thedatasupportthereliabilityofthetrade-offmethod:itsmeasurementscouldbereplicatedusingdifferentstimuliandwerenotsusceptibletost
6、rategicresponding.Keywords:regrettheory;utilitymeasurement;decisionunderuncertaintyHistory:ReceivedMay20,2008;acceptedAugust3,2009,byGeorgeWu,decisionanalysis.PublishedonlineinArticlesinAdvanceNovember6,2009.1.IntroductionRegrettheoryalsohasreal-world
7、implicationsandRegrettheory(Bell1982,LoomesandSugden1982)canexplainfielddatathatareincompatiblewithisanimportanttheoryofdecisionunderuncertainty.expectedutility.Forexample,Barberisetal.(2006),Thetheoryhasintuitiveappeal,beingbasedontheGollierandSalanié
8、(2006),andMuermannetal.notionthatpeoplecarenotonlyaboutwhattheyget(2006)applyregrettofinancialdecisions,BraunandMuermann(2004)toinsurancedecisions,PerakisandbutalsoaboutwhattheymighthavegottenhadtheyRoels(2008)tothenewsvendormodel,andFeliz-chos