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1、WhyDoesHouseholdInvestmentLeadBusinessInvestmentovertheBusinessCycle?JonasD.M.FisherFederalReserveBankofChicagoHouseholdinvestmentleadsnonresidentialbusinessfixedinvestmentovertheU.S.businesscycle.Becauserealbusinesscycletheoryhasnotbeenabletoaccountforthisobservation,itreprese
2、ntsapotentchallengetotheviewthattransitoryproductivitydisturbancesarethemainsourceofaggregatefluctuations.ThispaperreconcilesRBCtheorywiththeinvestmentdynamicsbyextendingthetraditionalhomeproductionmodeltomakehouseholdcapitalcomplementarytobusinesscapitalandlaborinmarketproduct
3、ion.Empiricalevidencesuggestingthathouseholdcapitalisacomplementaryinputinmarketproductionisalsopresented.I.IntroductionEconomistshavelongrecognizedthatinvestmentinhomesandcon-sumerdurablesleadsnonresidentialbusinessfixedinvestmentoverthebusinesscycle(e.g.,BurnsandMitchell1946)
4、.Indeed,insevenofthe10postwarrecessions,includingthetwomostrecent,householdin-vestmentreachesitspeakandtroughbeforebusinessinvestment.Whilethesedynamicsareamajorfeatureofthebusinesscycle,realbusinessThispaperisasubstantialrevisionof“ARealExplanationforHeterogeneousInvestmentDy
5、namics”(Fisher2001).ThankstoGadiBarlevy,LisaBarrow,ScottBrave,JeffCampbell,LawrenceChristiano,MartinEichenbaum,EricFrench,LarsHansen,SaadQuayyum,andseminarparticipantsatthe2001NationalBureauofEconomicResearchSummerInstitutefortheirvaluableinput,andthankstotherefereesandeditors
6、fortheircommentsandsuggestions,whichhaveimprovedthepapergreatly.IamgratefultoAnnaPaulsonforsupplyingthewealthdatausedinthisstudy.ThankstoScottBraveandSaadQuayyumforsuperbresearchassistance.AnyviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorandnotnecessarilyoftheFederalReserveBankofChic
7、agoortheFederalReserveSystem.[JournalofPoliticalEconomy,2007,vol.115,no.1]2007byTheUniversityofChicago.Allrightsreserved.0022-3808/2007/11501-0005$10.00141142journalofpoliticaleconomy1cycle(RBC)theoryhasfailedtoaccountforthem.Thisfailurechal-lengestheviewthattransitoryproduct
8、ivitydisturbancesarethemainsourceofshort-runfluctuations.Theob
