the four drivers of value

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1、Chapter5thefourDriversofvalueInmyexperience,mostpeoplewhoanalyzeinvestmentsspendfartoomuchtimegettingdistractedbytrivialities.Thesetrivialitiesenduppull-ingthemoffcourse,confusingthem,andcreatingvaluationrationalesthataresocomplexastobecomegothic.Gettingcarri

2、edawaywithunimpor-tantminutiaealsocontributestothedifficultiespeoplehaveinmakinginvestingdecisions—whethertoinvestinthefirstplaceandwhethertodecrease,increase,orcloseaninvestment.Thischapterintroducesaprocesstoestimatethevalueofacompa-ny—basedonthegoldenruleo

3、fvaluation—bysinglingoutandanalyzingonlyahandfulofdrivers.Itseemscounterintuitive,butyouwillseelaterinthisbookthatlessinformationactuallycountsformoreinmanycircum-stances,especiallywhenvaluingacompany’sstock.ThischapterworkshandinhandwithChapter4inteachingthe

4、skillsofanintelligentoptioninvestor.Chapter4outlinedhowvalueaccruestotheownerofacompany.Thischapterlooksatthespecificfactorsthatallowthatvaluetoaccrue.Jargonintroducedinthischapterisasfollows:ExplicitforecaststageStructuralgrowthstageInvestmentstageBird’sEyeV

5、iewoftheValuationProcessBeforelookingateachofthedriversinturn,let’sfirstgetanideaofthegoalwearetryingtoreachfromahighlevel.Ourgoldenruleofvaluationtiesthevalueofacompanytothecashflowsitcreatesovertime.Cashflowsare9192 • TheIntelligentOptionInvestorcreatedthro

6、ughtheprocesswesawintheexampleofthetaxicompanyinChapter4:revenuescomein,presentcostsarepaid,likelyfuturecostsaresavedupfor,andsomeinvestmentsmaybeundertakentoexpandthebusi-ness.Anycashthatisleftoverafterthisprocesscanbepaidtotheowners.Thisisaprettysimplemodel

7、,soitshouldnotbehardtocreateafairlyaccuratepictureofhowanindividualcompanyoperatesandhowitislikelytooperateinthefuture.Allweneedtounderstandis:1.Howrevenuesarelikelytochange2.Howefficientlyacompanyistranslatingthoserevenuesintoprofits3.Whatproportionoftheprof

8、itsthecompanyisinvestinginthegrowthofthebusinessandhoweffectivethoseinvestmentsareIndeed,thispicturealsodescribesallthetypicaldriversofvalueforacompany.Thereisonemoredriver,thatIcall“Bala