investors and managers in efficient markets

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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc18JWBT347/MckinseyMay26,201016:33PrinterName:Hamilton18InvestorsandManagersinEfficientMarketsTheevidencepresentedinChapter15demonstratedthatstockmarketsareeffi-cient,inthesensethatsharepricestypicallyreflecttheeconomicfundamentalsofthecompanieswhosesharesaretradedonthosemarkets.1Inth

2、ischapter,weexplainhowmarketsmanagetogenerateefficientpriceseventhoughnotallinvestorsactrationally,asChapter17explored.Itistheinteractionbetweeninvestorswithdifferentstrategies—somerational,somenot—thatcanresultintheobservablemarketpatternofvolatilepricesthatarestillgenerallyinlinewithintrinsicvalu

3、es.Weuseastraightforwardmodeltoillustratehowmarkettradingbybothrationalandirrationalinvestorswillproducemarketsthatarebothgenerallyefficientandvolatile.Empiricalresearchusinganewinvestorclassificationconfirmsthatrealinvestorsdoindeedfallintorationalandlessrationalcate-gories,butthemorerationaltype—th

4、osewhoarewellinformedandfocusedoncompanies’economicfundamentals—aretheoneswhoultimatelysetmar-ketprices.Theimplicationsofmarketefficiencyformanagersareclear.
Managersshouldfocusondrivingreturnoninvestedcapital(ROIC)andgrowthtocreatemaximumvalueforshareholders,becauseultimatelystockmarketvaluesaredr

5、ivenbythosefundamentalmeasures,too.AsChapter16demonstrates,marketefficiencymeansthereisnopointinmanagerspursuingquarterlyearningsgrowthormakingsharerepur-chasesorcross-listings,becausesuchcosmeticmeasuresdonotaffectintrinsicvalueandwillthereforehavenolastingimpactonshareprices.1Wefollowthedefinition

6、ofmarketefficiencygivenbyFischerBlack,“Noise,”JournalofFinance41,no.3(1986):533.397P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc18JWBT347/MckinseyMay26,201016:33PrinterName:Hamilton398INVESTORSANDMANAGERSINEFFICIENTMARKETS
Managersneedtounderstandtheirinvestorbase,sotheycancommu-nicatetheircompany’sstrategyforvaluecreationeff

7、ectivelytodifferentinvestorsegments.
ManagersshouldnotbedistractedfromtheireffortstodriveROICandgrowthbyanyshort-termpricevolatility—thatis,anytemporarydeviationintheirsharepricefromitsintrinsicvalue—becausesuchd