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1、20SomeReflectionsontheRecentFinancialCrisisGARYB.GORTON*20.1.INTRODUCTIONEconomicdevelopmentdoesnotresultintheeliminationoffinancialcrises.Therecentfinancialcrisisof20072009intheUnitedStatesandEuropeshowsthatmarketeconomies,howevermuchtheygrowandchange,arestillsusceptibl
2、etocollapseornear-collapsefromfinancialcrisis.Thisisastaggeringthought.Anditcameasasurprise,asfinancialcriseswerethoughttobethingsofthepastfordevelopedeconomies,nowonlyoccurringinemergingmarkets.Thefactofthe20072008crisisoccurrenceshouldgivepausetoeconomists.Whileitmayta
3、kemanyyearstofullyunderstandtherecentcrisis,inthisessayIoffersomepreliminarythoughtsoncrises.Idonotreviewtheacademicliterature,butratherselectivelyraisesomeissuesandinpassingmentionsomeresearch.Therecentcrisisemphasizesthatacrisisisadistinct,singular,event.Italsoraises
4、questionsaboutwhatconstitutesbankmoney,andwhatisabank,andwhatisthebankingsystem?Understandingthecrisishasrunintoproblemsfromalackofdata,leavingresearchersinthedarkonmanyimportantquestions.Ofcourse,knowingwhatdatatocollectrequiresanunderstandingofthecrisis.Ironically,if
5、governmentsandeconomistsknewwhatdatatocollectpriortoacrisis,theywouldthenlikelyunderstandthefragilityofthesystemandcould*WrittenasacontributionforTrade,GlobalizationandDevelopment:EssaysinHonorofKalyanSanyal,editedbySugataMarjitandRajatAcharya(SpringerVerlag;forthcomin
6、g).SomeofthisessaydrawsfrommaterialinmybookMisunderstandingFinancialCrises(OxfordUniversityPress;2012).IworkedatAIGFinancialProductsasaconsultantfrom19962008.IthankDougDiamond,BengtHolmström,ArvindKrishnamurthy,andGuillermoOrdoñezforcomments.ReflectionsontheFinancialCri
7、sis641possiblyavoidacrisis.Itseemsthatalackofdataandtheoccurrenceofacri-sisgohand-in-hand.Acrisisisasurprise,comingfromanunexpectedsource.Asaresult,thereislittledata.Thereareotherinherentdifficultiesinstudyingcrises.Althoughcrisesareperhapsmorecommonthanmanysupposedbefo
8、rethecurrentcrisis,stilltheusablesamplesizeofeventsissmall.Centraltounderstandingacrisismustbeaconceptofacrisis.Acris
