theory of decision under uncertainty itzhak gilboa (2008)(279p)外语英文电子书

《theory of decision under uncertainty itzhak gilboa (2008)(279p)外语英文电子书》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、TheoryofDecisionunderUncertaintyItzhakGilboaJuly2008Contents1Preface62MotivatingExamples93FreeWillandDeterminism113.1Canfreechoicebepredicted?..................113.2Istheworlddeterministic?....................123.3Isfreewillobservable?...................

2、...133.4Theproblemoffreewill.....................143.5Arationalillusion.........................193.6Freewillandthedecisionmatrix................214ThePrincipleofIndifference234.1Willacanonicalspacehelp?...................244.1.1Thecanonicalstatespace....

3、............244.1.2Difficultieswithauniformprioron[0,1]........254.1.3Conclusion.........................264.2What’sspecialaboutthecoin?.................274.2.1Symmetry.........................274.2.2Smoothbeliefs......................285RelativeFrequencie

4、s315.1Thelawoflargenumbers.....................315.2Theproblemofinduction....................335.2.1Hume’scritique......................3315.2.2Goodman’sgrue-bleenparadox.............345.2.3Kolmogorovcomplexityanditsdependenceoflanguage365.2.4Grue-bleena

5、gain.....................405.2.5Evolutionaryexplanations................475.3Problemswiththefrequentistapproach.............516SubjectiveProbabilities566.1Lindathebankteller.......................566.2Pascal’swager...........................586.3Classica

6、lvs.Bayesianstatistics.................606.3.1Basicdefinitions......................606.3.2Thegamblerfallacy....................626.3.3Exchangeability......................636.3.4Confidenceisnotprobability...............666.3.5Classicalstatisticscanberidic

7、ulous...........686.3.6Differentmethodsfordifferentgoals...........697ACaseStudy747.1Acharacterizationtheoremformaximizationofutility....747.2Proof................................777.3Interpretations..........................807.3.1Afewdefinitions..........

8、...........807.3.2Ameta-scientificinterpretation.............867.3.3Anormativeinterpretation................897.3.4Adescriptiveinterpretation...............917.4Limitations............................937.4.1Semi-orders.....