巴克莱-美股-能源行业-美国能源结构周报

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1、EquityResearch11December2017U.S.MLPs/U.S.DiversifiedNaturalGasINDUSTRYFOCUSEnergyInfrastructureWeeklyU.S.DiversifiedNaturalGasNEUTRALPreliminary2018E&PbudgetslookpositiveformidstreamUnchangedAsweapproachtheendoftheyear,E&Pcompanieshavebeguntoissueproductionandcapexguidancefor2018.Overa

2、ll,guidedcapexbudgetssofarareup~10%.WeU.S.MLPsthinktheseinitiallooksaregenerallybullishindicatorsforthemajorG&PproviderswithNEUTRALlargefootprints,particularlyinthePermianBasinandSCOOP/STACK/MergeplaysofUnchangedOklahoma.Inaddition,theseearlybudgetsshouldbeagoodindicatorfortheproducer-

3、sponsorednameslikeWES(APC)andNBLX(NBL),astheirupstreampartnersfocusU.S.MLPsandgrowspendingontheircoreonshoreassets(morepg6).RichardGross+12125263143ConstructiondelayswilldepressPermiangaspricesrichard.gross@barclays.comPermianbasishasblownoutgiventhelargeuptickinassociatedgasproduction

4、.TheBCI,USfirstmajorreliefofthisbottleneckisnotexpecteduntilthecompletionoftheGulfExpressPipelinein2019.IntheinterimsomereliefhasbeenexpectedgiventheChristineCho,CFA+12125268419completionoftakeawaypipesfromtheMexicanborderinterconnectedtoUSpipeschristine.cho@barclays.comoperatingatless

5、thanfullcapacity.AreviewofthestatusofmanyofthesepipesshowsBCI,USthisinterimreliefisunlikelytomaterializegivenconstructiondelays.ThefollowingtablesummarizesthestatusandindicatestheaveragedelayisroughlyoneyearfromoriginalTheresaChen,CFAinserviceday(ISD)estimates(morepg6).+12125267195ther

6、esa.chen@barclays.comTheoutlookforIDReliminationin2018BCI,USIDReliminationthroughbuy-inorrollupispartoftheunevenprocessofstructuralChristopherTillett,CFAunwindingweexpecttocontinuein2018.IDRburdensbecomenoticeableastheGP+12125264823splitmovesintothe20%rangeandbecomeshighlyimpactfulasth

7、ismetrichitsthechristopher.tillett@barclays.com30%threshold.Weexpecttwopartnerships(PSXP,TEP)tobeatorabovethis30%BCI,USlevelin2018(morepg7).KurtHoffmanEnergyslideslowerwhileS&Pglideshigher+12125269237Oilpricesdroppedalmost6%midweekbeforerecoveringtosettleonly1.7%belowkurt.hoffman@bar