j.p.摩根-全球经济数据解读

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1、Completed30Jun201708:39PMEDTDisseminated30Jun201708:40PMEDTEconomicResearchJune30,2017GlobalDataWatchMarketsfocusonlowinflationascentralbankspointtonormalizationContentsSolidgrowthshoulddeliverexpectedmovesfromFed,ECB,andBoCCreditgrowthslows,reinforcingalr

2、eadytamecycle14ButsustainednormalizationrequiresevidencecoreinflationisrisingEuroarea:Loweringourcoreinflationforecast18Nextweek:GlobalPMIdipsandUSemploymentsteadies(150k)Japan:Laborshortagewillnotboostwagegrowthsoon20Weholdthesetruthstobeself-evident...fo

3、rnowUK:AttemptingtounderstandtheBoE'shawkishshift24Theglobaleconomyhasdeliveredayearofabove-trendgrowthandslackAustralia:Wagerecoverystillacontinuestodeclinerapidly.TheDMunemploymentratehasdropped0.4%-distantprospect26ptoverthepastyear.At5.7%,thisnowalignswi

4、ththepeakofthelastexpan-GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4sion(Figure1).WithconfidencebuildingthatsolidgrowthcanbesustainedGlobalCentralBankWatch6amidtightlabormarkets,itisnosurprisethatDMcentralbanksarenowpre-Nowcastofglobalgrowth7paringmarketsforpolicynormaliza

5、tion.TheFedissignalingitisreadytoSelectedrecentresearchfromreduceitsbalancesheetalongsidecontinuedratenormalization.ECBgover-8J.P.MorganEconomicsnorDraghiwasupbeatthisweek,hintingthatpolicysettingsmaybetailoredTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9toimprovingconditions.

6、WhilewebelieveaweakUKconsumerwillstaytheBoE’shand,theBank’srecentcommunicationispreparingmarketsforapos-DataWatchesUnitedStates28sibleratehike.AndstrongCanadianactivityreadings—werevisedupcurrentEuroarea36quarterGDPgrowthtoanannualized2.8%thisweek—hasprompte

7、dtheBoCJapan40tosignalthatitsfirsthikewillcomesoon.Canada44Mexico46Behindthisshiftinrhetoriciscentralbanks’recognitionthatpolicynormalizationBrazil48willbematerialandchallenging.Indeed,DMlabormarketshavereturnedto2008Argentina50levelsbutpolicyratesareroughly

8、350bpbelowthepreviouspeak(Figure2).G-4Peru52centralbankbalancesheetshave,atthesametime,expandedbycloseto30%-ptsUnitedKingdom54EmergingEurope56relativetoGDP.Thecaseforthisextraordinarydegreeofacc