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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaPeriodicalDateChinaUtility/Alternative21June2017UtilitiesEnergyMichaelTong,CFALukaZhuChinaIPPs:mid-yeartariffhikeisaResearchAnalystResearchAssociate(+852)22036167(+852)22036173positivesurprisemichael.tong@db.comluka.zhu@db.com2.9-4.7%on-gridta
2、riffhikewithoutimpactingendusersHanyuZhangTheNDRChasjustissuedanoticerequestingprovincialgovernmentstoResearchAssociatesubmitthermalon-gridtariffhikeproposalsafterremoving/loweringseveral(+852)22036207end-usertariffsurchargesstartingon1July.Inessence,theon-gridtariffhikehan
3、yu.zhang@db.comwillcomefromstructuralrebalancingalongthetariffchainwithoutimpactingend-usertariffs.BasedonIPPs’2016geographicalcapacitymix,wecalculateToppicksthat,iftheabovesurchargeremovalisfullyusedtoraiseon-gridtariffs,theaveragetariffhikeforthefiveHK-listedthermalIPPswi
4、llbeinthe2.9-4.7%HuanengPowerIntl(0902.HK),HKD5.74Buyrange.Inourview,thetariffhikeeffectivefrommid-yearisapositivesurpriseCRPower(0836.HK),HKD14.56Buyasthemarkethasbeenlargelyexpectingatariffhikeonlyatyear-end.HuadianPower(1071.HK),HKD3.52BuyChinaPowerInt'l(2380.HK),HKD2.80
5、BuyAtariffrebalancingactratherthanimplementationoffueltariffpass-throughDatangInt'lPower(0991.HK),HKD2.62BuyEarlier,theStateCouncilannounceditwould1)cancelthesurchargefeeoftheSource:DeutscheBankurbanpublicutilitiessurcharge(Rmb1.1cent/kWh)effective1April,2)canceltheindustri
6、alstructureadjustmentfund(Rmb0.2-1.3cent/kWh)from1July,3)CompaniesFeaturedreducethenationalkeywaterprojectfund(Rmb0.4-1.5cent/kWh)andmedium-to-largesizedreservoirresidentsresettlementfund(Rmb0.2-HuanengPowerIntl(0902.HK),HKD5.74Buy0.8cent/kWh)by25%from1July.However,itseemso
7、nlytheurbanpublic2016A2017E2018Eutilitysurchargewillberemovedfromend-usertariffs,whiletheotherthreeP/E(x)7.3133.229.39elementswillbeoffsetbyacorrespondingon-gridthermaltariffhike,inorderEV/EBITDA(x)7.19.86.8topartiallyrelieveIPPs’earningspressureaheadoftheofficialtariffrevi
8、ew.Price/book(x)0.81.11.0Anothertariffhikeatyear-endunderthefueltariffpass-through
