巴黎银行-南非-宏观策略-风险贸易

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1、SouthAfrica:RiskybusinessAuthor:SouthAfricaneventriskwillbeelevatednextweekbykeyinflationdata,thecentralbank’sJeffreySchultzratedecisionandtwoscheduledsovereignratingsreviews.SeniorEconomistBNPParibasSouthAfricaWednesdayshouldseeamoderationinOctober’sheadlineCPIinflationbackbelow5%,but

2、theSARBislikelytowarnthatthebalanceofriskstotheinflationoutlookhasworsened.Thursday’smeetingofthemonetarypolicycommitteeislikelytoproducealessdividedon-holddecision,thoughwedonotthinkthiswouldnecessarilymarkanendtoratecutsyet.Fridaylookssettosendatleastoneofthelocal-currencysovereignde

3、btratingsinto‘junk’.WeexpectS&Ptodowngradeitduetoaworseningfiscaloutlookandrisingpoliticalrisks.InflationdatakickoffanNextweekisanimportantoneontheSouthAfricancalendar:onWednesday,thereleaseofimportantweekOctoberCPIdatawillbewatchedmorecloselythanusual;onThursday,themonetarypolicycommitt

4、eeoftheSouthAfricanReserveBank(SARB)willmeetforthelasttimethisyear;andonFriday,bothS&PandMoody’swillreleasesovereigncreditratingsreviews.OctoberCPItohaveWeexpectheadlineconsumerpriceinflationtohavemoderatedto4.9%y/yinOctoberfromslowedbackbelow5.0%...5.1%inSeptember,withamonth-on-monthrat

5、eof0.4%.Muchoftheslowdownislikelytobedrivenbyafurthersofteninginfoodpricemomentum,aslightlysmaller(albeitstillhigh)contributionfromfuelpricesandsupressedpricesofvehiclesandotherdurableandsemi-durablegoods.CoreCPIinflationislikelytohaveprintedmodestlyhigher(to4.7%y/yfrom4.6%,wethink),note

6、noughtoderailourviewthatunderlyinginflationislikelytoremainwellcontainedataroundthemid-pointoftheSARB’s3–6%inflationtargetbandthroughout2018.…butbalanceofriskstoWhileheadlineinflationislikelytoslowbacktowardsthemid-pointoftheSARB’stargetrangehaverisentowardstheendofthisyearandevenlowerin

7、toQ12018(seeChart1),wethinkthebalanceofrisksfortherand,creditratings,capitaloutflowsandhenceinflationexpectationshasshiftedclearlyhighersinceSeptember’spolicymeeting(Chart2).Assuch,wewouldexpectsomemodestupwardrevisionstothecentralbank’smedium-terminflationestimatesandfur