德银-新兴市场-固定收益-欧洲中东通货膨胀：预期及定位

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1、DeutscheBankResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateRates12February2018Gov.Bonds&SwapsKubilayOzturkChiefEconomistEMEAFixedIncome(+90)2123170124kubilay.ozturk@db.comInflationinCEE/ILS:WhattoexpectChristianWietoskaStrategistandhowtoposition(+44)20754-52424christian.wietoska@db.comCzechRepublic:CarlosGalin

2、doResearchAnalystWhattoexpect?WeexpectheadlineCPIat2.3%(previous:2.4%).(+44)207547-6269carlos.galindo@db.comTraderecommendation:Expressanear-termbullishbiasonCzechrates–despitecore-raterepricing.Keepshort-end1Yfwd1Y-5YIRSsteepeners(entry:32bp,current:38bp,target:75bp,stop:15bp)andcurvesteepenersin

3、2Y2Y–5Y5YIRS(entry:12bp,current:22bp,target:60bp,stop:0bp).Poland:Whattoexpect?WeexpectheadlineCPIat1.9%(previous:2.1%).FixedIncomeStrategy:Keeptactical2Y2YIRSreceivers(entry:3.05%,current:3.00%,target:2.75%,stop:3.25%)andstructuralforwardstartingsteepeners(1Yfwd5s10sIRS–entry:38bp,current:35bp,ta

4、rget:75bp,stop:25bp).Israel:Whattoexpect?WeexpectheadlineCPIat0.2%(previous:0.4%).Traderecommendation:Re-enter3Yfwd1yreceiversinILS(current:1.42,target:1.20,stop:1.60)with14bpof3mroll.Keep5Y5YIRSreceiversvsUS-swaps(entrance:-50bp,current:7bp,target:50bp,stop:-30bp).Hungary:Whattoexpect?Weexpecthe

5、adlineCPIat2.0%(previous:2.1%).Traderecommendation:KeepanoverallbearishbiasonHUFrates.Switchfrom1Y1Y–5Y5YIRSinto2Y2Y-10YIRSsteepeners(current:55bp,target:100bp,stop:40bp)with7bpof3mroll.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________D

6、eutscheBankAG/LondonDistributedon:12/02/201820:00:00GMTDistributedon:12/02/201821:00:00GMTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa12February2018EMEAFixedIncome:InflationinCEE/ILS:WhattoexpectandhowtopositionCzechRepublicWhattoexpectthisweek?Weexpec

7、ttheJanuaryheadlineinflationfiguretoprintat2.3%YoY(0.7%MoM).Food,housing,restaurantsandtransportationwillcontinuetoaccountforthebulkofinflationarypressures(84%tothetotalcontributiontotheannualheadline