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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongHongKongProperty8February2018PropertyPropertyForecastChangeJasonChing,CFAJeffreyGao,CFAModeratingdividendgrowthexpectedResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036205(+852)22036256inupcomingresultsseason
2、jason.ching@db.comjeffrey.gao@db.comScopefordividendhikemoderatesasrecurringincomegrowthslowsdownStephenCheung,CFAAsinpreviousresultsseasons,HangLungPropertieskick-startedtheresultsResearchAnalystseasonforHongKongpropertycompanies,onJan30.Ingeneral,we
3、expectto(+852)22036182seelittleexcitementintheupcomingresultsseason,asstronger-than-expectedstephen-a.cheung@db.comASPsachievedinprimaryprojectssoldinFY17willnotbereflecteduntilFY18.Moreover,asthedividendhikehasgenerallyoutpacedgrowthintheFooLeungcorr
4、espondingrecurringincomeoverthepastfewyears,thesectorpayoutResearchAssociateratioalreadyreachedahigh49%inFY16andrecurrentprofitasapercentage(+852)22036239todividendfellto108%(117%inFY14;111%inFY15).Hence,webelievethisfoo.leung@db.comwillhinderthescope
5、forfurtherdividendhikes.Expectcoreprofit+7.6%YoYinFY17;drivenbystrongdevelopmentsalesKeyChangesDrivenbystrongperformanceintheprimarymarketintermsofbothsalesCompanyTargetPriceRatingvolumeandASP,weexpectcoreearningstogrow7.6%YoYonaverageinFY17,amongthec
6、ompaniesunderourcoveragethataresettoreportearningsHKLD.SI6.14to6.30(USD)-inthecomingmonth.Inparticular,weexpectKerrytoreportthestrongestset0066.HK42.60to-41.00(HKD)ofresults,withcoreearningsgrowingby55%,boostedbybookingsofThe1997.HK46.20to-Bloomswayan
7、dMantinHeights.Ontheotherhand,weanticipateHysanDev51.20(HKD)andWharfREICtoreporttheweakestresults,withcorenetearningsgrowing1113.HK69.30to-by0.9%anddeclining1.6%,respectively.Meanwhile,weanticipatestronger79.50(HKD)earningsgrowthinFY18;wereviseupourea
8、rningsestimateby7%on0014.HK32.30to-average,byfactoringinstronger-than-expectedASPachieved.33.00(HKD)0683.HK30.00to-Expectpositiverentalreversionforoffice/neutraltomarginalnegativeforretail33.50(HKD)Inourview,thescopeforrentalreversionisstillon
