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1、EquityGlobalMacroISSUE65
2、February28,2018ResearResearchchTOPofHASABONDBEARMINDMARKETBEGUN?Ten-yearUSTreasuryyieldsareattheirhighestlevelsinyears,andFedpolicy,acceleratinginflation,andrisingTreasurysupplyallseemtobepointingtofurtherincreases.Weaskseveralexpert
3、sifbondsareenteringabearmarketafteramulti-decadebullrun:PaulTudorJones—YES,andthat’stheleastofourproblems;GSCo-ChiefMarketsEconomistFrancescoGarzarelliandGSCo-HeadofGlobalInterestRatesProductsTradingScottRofey—notyet,but10-yearyieldsaresettomovemoderatelyhi
4、gher;andPGIMFixedIncomeSeniorPortfolioManagerGregoryPeters—farfromenteringabearmarket,yieldswillgenerallydeclinefromhere.Weexploretheimpactofrisingratesonriskassets,findingthattheyshouldremainresilientaslongasratesmovegraduallyandgrowthstaysstrong(asweexpect
5、).Buteveniftheriskofalargedrawdowninbothbondsandequitiesmaterialized,webelievetheUSeconomywouldbeabletoweathertheimpact.WHAT’SINSIDEThebearmarketinbondsisthenaturalupshotofthe“bullmarketinmonetaryandfiscallaxity...WeareINTERVIEWSWITH:settingthestageforaccele
6、ratinginflation,justaswePaulTudorJones,Co-ChairmanandCIO,TudorInvestmentCorp.didinthelate‘60s.GregoryPeters,SeniorPortfolioManager,PGIMFixedIncome-PaulTudorJones,Co-ChairmanandChiefInvestmentFrancescoGarzarelli,Co-ChiefMarketsEconomist,GoldmanSachsOfficer,Tud
7、orInvestmentCorporationResearch,togetherwithScottRofey,Co-HeadofGlobalInterestRatesFortheexclusiveuseofZENG.SHENG@ICBCCS.COM.CNProductsTrading,GoldmanSachsSecuritiesDivisionTherearestilltremendousseculardisinflationaryforcesMULTI-ASSETPORTFOLIOSANDTHEBONDBEA
8、RChristianMueller-Glissmann,GSMulti-AssetStrategyResearchintheworld...whichwillultimatelyconstraineconomicgrowthandcapbondyields.ASTRESSTESTFORHIGHERRATES“DaanStruyvenandJanHatzius,GSEconomicsResearch-GregoryPeters,SeniorPortfolioManager,EMRATES:REASONSFORR
9、ESILIENCEPGIMFixedIncomeMarkOzerovandKamakshyaTrivedi,GSGlobalFXandEMStrategyResearch...ANDMOREAllisonNathan
10、allison.nathan@gs.comMarinaGrushin
11、marina.grushin@gs.comDavidGroman
12、david.groman@gs.comInves
