德意志银行-emmacroandstrategyfocus-20170612-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsDateEMMacroand12June2017StrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliNextweek'sauctions,economiccalendarandperformancechartscanbefoundStrategistwithin.Forourlatestlongtermviewsoneconomicsandstrategy,seeour+1-212-250-73

2、55EmergingMarketsMonthly.SeealsotheEMSovereignCreditWeekly.JedEvansStrategist+1-212-250-8605SebastianBrownStrategist+1-212-250-8191GautamKalani,PhDStrategist+44-20-754-57066JulianaLeeChiefEconomist+852-2203-8312GuilhermeMaroneStrategist+1-212-250-8640

3、Figure1:Best&WorstFXFigure2:Best&WorstRatesPerformance:Performance:ElinaRibakovaWeeklyReturn(%)Weekly5YIRSSpreadChg(bps)ChiefEconomistÝEUR/ZAR2.5%MXN-25+44-20-7547-1340USD/MXN2.4%TRY-8ChristianWietoskaÝUSD/CLP1.0%PLN-5StrategistÝUSD/ARS0.8%ZAR-5+44-

4、20-754-52424USD/KRW-0.2%HUF0EUR/KZT-0.3%ILS0USD/BRL-0.5%CZK2USD/COP-0.9%BRL5Source:GlobalMarketsResearchSource:GlobalMarketsResearchDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.Distributedon:12/06/201707:57:12GMTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1

5、.MCI(P)083/04/2017.0bed7b6cf11c12June2017EMMacroandStrategyFocusTopTradesLastActionIDStatusCountryTradeNameWeightsInitiationLastActionEntryCurrentTargetStopDateFxTradesEMEAChgTarget&1MaintainIsraelShortUSD/ILSFXOutright20Apr1701Jun173.683.533.453.70St

6、opPoland/Czech/2MaintainLongPLN,CZK,HUF(equallyweighted)vsEURFXOutright30May17Initiation100.00100.30103.0098.00Hungary3MaintainTurkeyShortUSD/TRYFXOutright30May17Initiation3.573.533.403.60LATAMArgentina/1NewBuyARS/MXNFXOutright08Jun17Initiation1.141.1

7、51.181.12Colombia2NewMexicoBuyUSD/MXNFXOutright08Jun17Initiation18.2518.2018.8018.053NewPeruSellEUR/PENFXOutright08Jun17Initiation3.683.653.563.73Buy1MUSD/BRLDNT(3.19/3.40)@20%(~5:1payoutratio,4NewBrazilrefFX3.27)OptionPayoff08Jun17Initiation0.00%0.00

8、%5NewColombiaSell3MUSDc/COPp@2800~0.8%,OptionPayoff08Jun17Initiation0.00%0.00%RatesTradesEMEA1NewCzech9x12FRAs-1Y1YIRSsteepenerDV01Neutral08Jun17Initiation18.0020.0040.005.002NewHungaryPay2YIRSOutright08Jun17Initiation0.380.390.900.25ChgTarget