那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-菲利普斯曲线是颠倒的

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1、FlashEconomicsThePhillipscurveisupsidedown12January2018-26ThePhillipscurveisthenegativerelationshipbetweentheunemploymentrateontheonehandandgrowthinwagesorinunitlabourcostsorinflationontheother.Butintherecentperiod,thedeclineintheunemploymentrateintheUnitedStatesandtheeurozonehascoincidedwithaslow

2、downinunitlabourcosts:thePhillipscurveisupsidedown,whichisobviouslyhighlydisruptiveformonetarypolicyandinterest-rateformation.WhatmayhavecausedthePhillipscurvetobecomeupsidedown?Weexplorethefollowingpossibility:theunemploymentratehasbeendecliningbecauselow-skilledpeoplehavebeenacceptinglowwagestor

3、eturntowork,whichdragsdowntheaveragewagewhentheunemploymentratedeclines.Thisexplanationisconsistentwiththeobservationthatthemedianwagehasbeenacceleratingandtheaveragewagehasnotacceleratedorhasevenslowed.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDist

4、ributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThePhillipscurvehasbeenupsidedownintherecentperiodThePhillipscurveistheusuallynegativerelationshipbetweentheunemploymentrateontheonehandandgrowthinwagesorinunitlabourcostsorinflationontheother.Wewilllo

5、okatthesituationoftheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone.Intherecentperiod,thedeclineintheunemploymentratehascoincidedwith:-IntheUnitedStates(Charts1A,BandC),aslowdowninlabourcostsandstablecoreinflation;Chart1AChart1BUnitedStates:NominalpercapitawageandUnitedStates:Unitlabourcostsandunemploymentunemploymen

6、traterateNominalpercapitawageexcl.benefits(non-farm,Y/Yas%)Unitlabourcostsexcl.benefits(non-farm,Y/Yas%)Nominalpercapitawageexcl.benefits(non-financial,Y/Yas%)Unitlabourcostsexcl.benefits(non-financial,Y/Yas%)Unemploymentrate(as%)Unemploymentrate(as%)1010101088886666444422220000-2Sources:Datastrea

7、m,-2Sources:Datastream,BEA,BLS,NatixisBEA,BLS,Natixis-2-2-4-402030405060708091011121314151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Chart1CUnitedStates:InflationandunemploymentrateCore*PCEdeflator(Y/Yas%)Unemploymen