大宗商品市场日报

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1、金融市场交易中心2017年大宗商品市场faCommoditiesMarket概览建行商品指数整体上行，年内开于1529.94，收于1889.24，涨幅达21.3%。各板块中，黑色板块上涨30.7%，有色板块上涨18.3%，农产品板块下跌4.2%，贵金属板块下跌1.21%。2017年商品价格变化情况一览数据来源：Wind、CCB1/37观点摘要2/37作者原油：崔悦钢铁：袁匡济铜：张航大豆：徐俊021-60637062021-60637071021-60637068021-60637063cuiyue1.zh@ccb.comyuankuangji.zh@ccb.co

2、mzhanghang1.zh@ccb.comxujun4.zh@ccb.com复核陆怡烽021-60637061luyifeng.zh@ccb.com审核格根021-60637055gegen.zh@ccb.com3/37目录原油.................................................................................................................................................................5一、走势回顾：供

3、给变动主导，油价呈V型走势.....................................................................................5二、影响因素分析：关注重点从去产能转向页岩油产量.........................................................................6三、后市展望：供给调整仍是关键，预计油价中枢上移................................................................

4、.......11钢铁...............................................................................................................................................................13一、市场回顾：全年钢铁市场宽幅震荡................................................................................................

5、...13二、影响因素分析：行业政策主导短期预期...........................................................................................14三、2018年展望：行情逻辑切换，重点关注行业供求..........................................................................22铜..................................................................

6、.....................................................................................................24一、市场回顾：供给收缩强于预期，铜价震荡后大幅上行...................................................................24二、铜供给意外收缩...............................................................................

7、....................................................25三、需求低速持稳.......................................................................................................................................26四、交易所库存结构大调整..........................................................................

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