资源描述：
《瑞信-美股-农业行业-美国农业科技行业11月研究》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、19October2017GlobalEquityResearchFertilizersAgriculturalSciencesSectorResearchAnalystsQUARTERLYChristopherS.Parkinson2125386286christopher.parkinson@credit-suisse.comColdNovemberRainLikelytoFizzleFertRallyChrisCounihan442078837618AstheharvestisnowunderwayintheNo
2、rthernHemisphere,we'dliketoofferchris.counihan@credit-suisse.cominvestorsanupdateofourglobalteams'viewsontheagmacrobackdrop,SemyonMironovfertilizerpriceforecasts,andsomebroaderthoughtsonthespace:74956628510semyon.mironov@credit-suisse.com■AdjustingEst'sforourNor
3、thAmericanAgriculture:OnthebackofourVictorSaragiottoupdatedviewsontheglobalag/nutrientcomplexweadj.ourTP'sand551137016303EPSest'sacrossourcoverageuniverse.WeissuenewestimatesforMOSvictor.saragiotto@credit-suisse.com('17CSeof$0.75,TP$18),POT('17CSeof$0.62,newTP$1
4、8),AGUMathewHampshire-Waugh('17CSeof$4.80,newTP$102),CF('17CSeof-$0.65,newTPof$34).442078880194mathew.waugh@credit-suisse.com■EuphoriaintheAgWorldPremature;RealitytoBitein'18/'19:AswasGraemeWeldsabundantlyevidentatourSeptemberconference,investorsarestillquite212
5、5388463eagerto"catchthebottom"inthefertilizerspace.Whilerecentpriceactiongraeme.m.welds@credit-suisse.com(esp.innitrogen)hasadmittedlyovershotourneartermexpectations,weKierandeBrun2125383440stresstherallyappearspredominatelysupplydriven(MENAoutages,lowkieran.deb
6、run@credit-suisse.comChineseportavailabilityinNT,etc.).WeforecastmaterialdownsideriskinSamuelPerry,CFAthecomingquarters,basingourviewonprobablesupplygrowthexceeding442078881583demand,atrendwhichisevidentacrossall3macronutrients(N-P-K).Wesamuel.perry@credit-suiss
7、e.comalsostressthatinlandandseaboardtransportratescontinuetorise,likelyHarrisFein2125383064preventingrecentpriceimprovementstoentirelyfalltobottomlineprofits.harris.fein@credit-suisse.com■'18S/DtoStayChoppy;Kickin'theOversupplyCanDowntheRoad:GlobalN-P-Kmarketsar
8、efarfromfeelingthefulleffectsofnewsupply;innitrogenwehighlightthatOCIisonlybeginningtorampWever,whileKoch/DakotaGasshouldbeonlinein4Q/1Q.Inpotash,K+S'Bethunesentthefi
