瑞信-全球-外汇策略-外汇指南：政治博弈

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1、18October2017GlobalFixedIncomeResearchForeignExchangeFXCompass:PlayingPoliticsResearchAnalystsShahabJalinoos2123255412shahab.jalinoos@credit-suisse.comFigure1:RisingItalyelectionriskpricing-EURbuyingopportunity?RayFarris%65621234121.00ray.farris@credit-suisse.comAlviseMarino0.5

2、021232559110.00alvise.marino@credit-suisse.com-0.50NimrodMevorach-1.006m-3mRRspread442078881257nimrod.mevorach@credit-suisse.com-1.50EURUSD3mRRTrangThuyLe-2.00EURUSD6mRR85221017426-2.50trangthuy.le@credit-suisse.comApr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17HonglinJiang442078881

3、501Source:CreditSuisse,theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™servicehonglin.jiang@credit-suisse.comPoliticscontinuestodriveFXmarketsaboveotherfactors.TheUSDcontinuesBhaveerShah442078831449totradewell,withthethemesofwhowillruntheFed(monetarypolicy)andbhaveer.shah@credit-suisse.comwhatformoft

4、axcutswillemerge(fiscalpolicy)bothtitlinginfavourofthegreenbackinrecentdays.AslongasthemarketcanholdontohopesforsomemixoftaxcutsandamorehawkishFedcomposition,wesuspectUSDretracementswillbeshallowforthetimebeing.Still,themarketatheartremainsinlowvolatilitymode,suggestingthatUSDr

5、alliesarealsolikelytobetentative,intheabsenceoffreshnewsthatgoesbeyondconceptualintotherealmoftangible.Meanwhile,EURremainsundersomemildpressurefromperipherypolitics.InItaly,theSenatethisweektookupthe"Rosatellum"electorallaw,allowingthemarkettolookintothepossibilityofaharddatef

6、orwhatcouldbeariskeventfortheEUR.Withabsolutelevelsofbothimpliedvolatilityandskewquitemuted,themarketisstillnotcurrentlyascribingatremendousriskpremiumforItalianpoliticalrisk,whichmakessensegiventhatmostobserversbelievethenewelectorallawplaysintothehandsofestablishmentparties.W

7、econtinuetotargetaneventualEURUSDmoveto1.25andseedipstowards1.16asabuyingopportunityInJapan,latestpollssuggesttheOctober22LowerHouseelectionwillbewonconvincinglyenoughbyPMAbe'sLDPsoastoavoidanyleadershipchallengefromwithinhisownpartyintheforeseeablefuture.OurviewhasbeenthatanAb

8、evictorywouldfurthersolidifythemarket'sbeliefthattheBO