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1、GamblingonDerivativesHedgingRiskorCourtingDisaster?"Itcouldripyourgutsoutovernight...thebiggest,mostpotentiallylucrative,anddestructivemarketintheworld."IntotheFirebyLindaDavies."Innocircumstancesenterthederivativestradingmarketwithoutfirstagreeingitinwritingwithme...a
2、tsometimeinthefutureitcouldbringtheworld'sfinancialsystemtoitsknees."SirJulianHodgeMemo,datedNovember1990,toseniorexecutivesoftheCardiff-basedJulianHodgeBank,quotedintheWesternMail,Tuesday,February281995."Weviewthemastimebombsbothforthepartiesthatdealinthemandtheeconom
3、icsystem...Inourview...derivativesarefinancialweaponsofmassdestruction,carryingdangersthat,whilenowlatent,arepotentiallylethal."WarrenBuffettTheworld'sgreateststockmarketinvestor,knownas"theSageofOmaha",inhisChairman'sLetterintheBerkshireHathaway2002AnnualReport.Unlike
4、WarrenBuffet,SirJulianHodge,theWelshbanker,issuedhisapocalypticwarningthreeyearsbeforethefirstrashofderivativesdisastersinvolvingMetallgesellschaft,OrangeCounty,SearsRoebuck,Proctor&Gamble,happenedin1994.Morewastocomein1995intheformoftheDaiwaandBaringsscandals.Noneofth
5、oseontheirown,however,threatenedtobringtheworldfinancialsystemtoitsknees.Thecrisisthatcameclosesttodoingso,sofar,involvedLTCMinSeptember1998,butcouldamega-catastropheliearoundthecorner...? FinancialDerivativesTimeline12thCenturyInEuropeantradefairssellerssigncontractsp
6、romisingfuturedeliveryoftheitemstheysold.WhatareDerivatives?Derivativesarefinancialinstrumentsthathavenointrinsicvalue,butderivetheirvaluefromsomethingelse.Theyhedgetheriskofowningthingsthataresubjecttounexpectedpricefluctuations,e.g.foreigncurrencies,bushelsofwheat,st
7、ocksandgovernmentbonds.Therearetwomaintypes:futures,orcontractsforfuturedeliveryataspecifiedprice,andoptionsthatgiveonepartytheopportunitytobuyfromorselltotheothersideataprearrangedprice.DerivativesandSpeculationThejobofaderivativestraderislikethatofabookieonceremoved,
8、takingbetsonpeoplemakingbets.ThedescriptionabovecomesfromInIntotheFireanovelaboutfraudulenttradinginderivatives,byLin
