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1、本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译原文一：ApplicationofVARinFinancialRiskAnalysisofElectricityMarketsAbstract:Inthispaper,thenecessitytostudyfinancialrisksinelectricitymarkets,theapplicationoftheValueatRisk(VaR)methodandthefeasibilityofhistoricalsimulationsarefirstlyintroducedanddiscussed
2、.Thenthegrossprofit,dailyVaRandweeklyVaRmodelsofanelectricitycompany(theuniquebuyer)basedonpracticalconditionsoftheZhejiangelectricitymarketsarepresented,andthecorrespondingcomputationalresultsarereported.Furthermore,theapplicationofhistoricalsimulationsinfinancial
3、riskinvestigationsofelectricitymarketsisanalyzed,andtheinfluenceofthetwofactors(contractedpricePcandcontractratek)ofCFD(ContractForDifference)onthecompany’sgrossprofitanddailyVaRarediscussed.Thenumericalresultsrevealedthatthehistoricalsimulationissuitabletoanalyzea
4、ndtopredicttheshort-termfinancialrisk(nextdayornextweek)ofelectricitymarket.Itisintuitive,simpleandeasytoimplement.1.IntroductionTheworldwidereconstructionandderegulationofelectricityindustryisgivingrisetocompetitionsandvigortothepreviouslymonopolisticmarket.Howeve
5、r,thesearealsoaccompaniedbyriskswhichhaveneverbeenexperiencedbymarketparticipants(electricitycompanies),especiallyintermsofthefluctuationoftheelectricityprice.Ascontrarytoothercommoditieselectricitycannotbestoredandthereisaneedtomaintainaninstantaneousbalancebetwee
6、nthesupplyandconsumption.However,consumptionchangescannotbemeteasilyfromelectricitystorages.Sotheequilibriumpriceofelectricitymarketswillvarystochasticallyastheloadchanges.Therefore,therewillbedrasticjumpingorpeakcharacteristicsinelectricitypriceduetothelimitationi
7、npowergenerationandoutputcapacities.Becauseofthemonopolyofelectricitymarkets,someelectricityproducersmaydominatetheprices,whichwillmakethepricevariationcomplicated.Moreover,thetendencyofcommoditizationintheelectricityindustryareaggravatingtherisksinthewholeelectric
8、itysystem.Therisksincludetraditionaltechnicalrisks,moreimportantly,thevastfinancialriskfrommarketprices.Alltheserisksmayoccursimultaneouslyandaff
