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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、PhilippinesPhilippinesPowerSectorVolatilityandshortageriskslingerElectricUtilities
3、SectorReviewFigure1:Luzonpowersituation,criticallevelsresumebeyond2022(MW)16,5002,438ResearchAnalystsChescaBugia-Tenorio15,50014,5001,804MWgapMW
4、gap63288587752chesca.bugia-tenorio@credit-suisse.com13,50012,50011,50010,5009,5008,5002019A2020E2021E2022E2023E2024EAvailableCapacityTotalCommittedCapacityGapForecastedPeakDemandPeakdemand+ReserveRequirementRedalertlevel(regulatingreserve)Yellowalertlevel
5、(contingencyreserve)RequireddispatachablereserveSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimatesPowerdemandrecovery,better-than-expected.Asthecountryhastransitionedtoasemi-lockdown,Junepowerdemandlevelshavebeen21%higherthanApril’sandonly7%lowerYoY,versusapeakofloc
6、kdownwithvolumes20-35%lowerYoY.AsJuneisagoodindicationofapost-lockdownrecovery,wecancontinuetoseeavolumedemandrecoveryforthebalanceof2020.Weforecast2020demandof1.3%growth(from0to-2%,previously)andlong-termgrowthof3.5-4.0%for2021onwards(from3-3.5%).Supplyre
7、mainsoverstatedandCOVID-19causesdelays.Priortothepandemic,wehadanoutlookofcriticaltightsupplyandalong-termshortageriskimminentforthesector.Today,ourreviewofmajorcapacityprojectsremainsoverstatedwithdelaysstill.Wecanqualifyonly1.8GWofLuzon’snewsupplyof4GWto
8、confidentlycomeon-lineinthenext2-3yearsplusallaredelayedby6-9monthsduetothelockdown/pandemic.Asaresult,Luzonisstillatriskfromhoveringaroundsingle-digitmarginsby2022’ssupply.Pricevolatilityandshortageriskremainsinthemediumterm.Luzon,beingacriticalarea,would
9、barelymeetrequireddispatchablereservesevenasnewcommittedcapacitycomesin2021-22.Luzonbeyond2022wouldbarelymeetcontingencylevelsleadingtoperiodsoftightsupplyandhence,shortageriskandpricevolatility.Giventheriskofmarginswings,thesupply’serraticoutputcouldstill
10、leadtopricevolatility.WecontinuetoestimateWESMratestostillaveragearoundP4-5/kWhfor2H20-2021,versus1H20’sP2.8/kWh.Stockcalls.WemaintainourMARKETWEIGHTviewgiventhesector’sshowofdemandresiliencytosupportadecentr
