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《2020年Q2医疗设施预览：COVID对第二季度业绩的影 响.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesHealthcareFacilities2QPreview:COVIDImpactedQ2ResultsMayTakeBackseatto2H20OutlookCommentsHealthcareFacilities
3、Comment2Q20willbeanoisyquarterwithawiderangeofexpectationsgiventheCOVID-19crisis.Investorswilllikelyfocuson2H20commentaryandthesetupfor2021.Thisprevi
4、ewdiscussestheexpectationsforACHC,AMED,AMN,CCRN,EHC,GEN,HCSG,MD,SCI,andSEM.■OpportunityforAMEDtoOutperforminQ2;HHSetupFavorablefor2021:OurQ2EBITDAestimateof$44.2mlncompareswiththeconsensusestof$45.1.Thereislikelyupsidetoournumbersasweareexcludingall$100mlnofCaresActgrantmoneyAMEDreceivedinQ2.
5、WemodelQ2homehealth(HH)episodesdown10%,whichispotentiallyontheconservativesideasAMEDindicatedonJune23rdthattotalHHstarts(admissions+re-certifications)wereabovepre-COVIDlevels.Moreover,hospicevolumesrecoveredtopre-COVIDlevelsfasterthanHH.WethinkAMEDissetupnicelyfor2H20and2021,forafewreasons.1)
6、M&AhasstartedtopickupposttheinitialCOVIDshock–i.e.AddusandPennantGroupannouncedHHacquisitionsonJuly1st.Weexpectconsolidationwillcontinueinto2021atanincreasingpaceasHHagenciesstruggletopaybackfederalrelieffunds.2)HHvolumeswillcontinuetoaccelerate.AlthoughAMEDnotedthatHHepisodeswhereabovepre-CO
7、VIDlevelsneartheendofJune,thiswaswithreferralsrelatedtoelectiveproceduresonlyat~50%ornormallevels.Aselectiveproceduresrampandleadtoincreasedreferrals,andasmorepatientslookforin-homecaretoavoidhealthcaresettings,weexpectelevatedHHvolumegrowth–i.e.wemodel11%Y/YgrowthinHHepisodesin2021.3)Weviewt
8、heproposedCY20212.6%MedicarerateupdateforHHAsasmodestlypositive,giventheproposaldidnotsuggestadjustmentsforbehavioralchanges.Weexpect2021revenuetogrowby13%Y/Yto$2.29bln(vscons.$2.27bln).■HHTrendsBenefitEHCAsWell:InQ2,weestimateadjustedEBITDAwilldeclineby29.3%Y/Yto$178mln(vsconsensus$179mln).E
9、HCnotedthatHHepisodestartsandHospiceAdmissionswereabovepre-COVIDlevelsasoftheweekendedJuly14th.AlthoughitsIRFADCwasstill3-4%belowpre-COVIDlevelsasofJune17th,weexpectmanagementtocommentonimprovingvolumesinthebackhalfof2020.Manyinvestorsareposi
