对民 主党医改建议的敏感性.docx

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1、EquityResearchGlobalConnectionSeries:BiopharmaSensitivitytoDemocraticHealthcareRecommendationsPharmaceuticals&Biotechnology

2、ConnectionsSeriesInthisConnectionSeriesnotewelookintothepotentialimpactofDemocraticpolicyrecommendationsonourEUPharmaandUSLargeCapBiotechcoverage.Lastweek

3、JoeBidenandtheDemocraticPartyunveiledtheirjointpolicyrecommendationsacrossarangeofeconomicissues.ForHealthcare,keyrecommendationsbuildontheAffordableCareActandinclude:(1)reducingprescriptiondrugpricesthroughdirectnegotiationusinginternationalreferencepricingandanindependentrevi

4、ewtoestablisha“reasonable”pricefornewdrugs,(2)loweringMedicareeligibilityto60from65yearsold,(3)expansionofMedicaidtoalllowincomeAmericans.SeparatelyMrBidenhasproposedraisingcorporatetaxrates.Inthisnoteweconductasensitivityanalysistoloweringofdrugprices,andpotentialtaxreformforo

5、urEUcompanies,andhighlightthecurrentexposuretoMedicare/Medicaid.WeseetheH.R.3LowerDrugCostsNowAct(commonlyknownasthePelosiHealthcarebill)alreadypassedbytheHouseasalikelytemplateforanyreformin2021.However,weacknowledgeitwillnotbesimpleandlegislationmaybedifficulttopass,evenwitha

6、majorityDemocrat-heldSenate.Directnegotiationbasedoninternationalreferencepricingcouldresultinanaverage50%pricedropofUSdrugsand>30%cutinnetincome.Weanalysetheimpactbasedon150leadingdrugswith2019USsalesof$206B.InternationalpricereferencinghasbeenproposedbybothPresidentTrumpandDe

7、mocrats.InadditiontotheimmediatepricecutwehighlightitcouldimportshorterEUpatentlivesand,ifbenchmarkedannually,coulddriveregularpricecutswhicharetriggeredinEuropeasindicationsbroaden.Focusonhigh-pricednewlaunches.TheDemocratshaveaspecificfocusonnewdruglauncheswithanannualUStreat

8、mentcostover$62,000.Bidenproposesamechanismforassessingamaximumpriceusingcosteffectivenessmeasuresandthelevelofperceivedbenefitoverexistingtreatments.Wenotethatin6outof8recentreviewsofspecialtydrugs,ICERdeterminedanacceptablepriceonaverage44%lowerthanthatchargedbyPharma.Impactb

9、eyondgovernmentprograms.TheBidenplanwouldallowprivateh