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1、NDI2013–6WS–MEXICOCURRENCYAFFIRMATIVE1ACAdvantageRecentchangesinmonetarypolicyarecausingmassivesell-offsinemergingmarkets—MexicoisuniquelyvulnerableProthero6/28,NeilProthero,EconomistIntelligenceUnit'sleadanalystontheUK,regularcontributortotheindependentec
2、onomicforecastsproducedbytheUKTreasuryandtheBankofEngland“Theendisn’tnigh¶Centralbankchallengesastheeraofcheapmoneyentersanewphase”,EconomicsIntelligenceUnit,http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The%20end%20isn't%20nigh%20-%20July%202013.pdf,June
3、28th2013)InvestorshavereactedwithsomealarmtoindicationsthattheUSFederalReservecouldsoonscaleback“quantitativeeasing”(QE).Recentweekshaveseenamajorsell-offinemerging-marketassetsasinvestorsanticipatehigherreturnsintheUS.Thishasrevivedconcernsaboutexternalfi
4、nancinginsomevulnerableemergingmarkets.Althougheventualmonetarypolicynormalisationintherichworldneednotbecalamitousforemergingmarkets,manyofwhichhavestrongerexternalbalancesheetsthaninthepast,vulnerabilitiesarerising.Inaddition,recenteventsmaysignalamorefu
5、ndamentalreassessmentofemergingmarkets’economicprospects.¶Itshouldbenotedattheoutsetthatthesell-offhasnotsolelybeentheresultofUSmonetary-policysignals,andthatitsstartpredatedspeculationaboutliquiditywithdrawalbytheFed.Lacklustreglobaleconomicgrowthanddisap
6、pointingdatainanumberofemergingmarkets,notablyChina,butalsoBrazilandRussia,havecontributedtotheshiftininvestorsentiment,ashaverecentprotests¶inTurkeyandBrazil.Nonetheless,theFed’schangeoftonesincemid-Mayhastriggeredamoredramaticretreatfromemerging-marketas
7、sets.Theinevitableprocessofadjustment,afteryears¶ofextraordinarymonetaryaccommodationsincetheeconomiccrisisof2008-09,willultimatelyculminateinhigherUSinterestrates.Allelsebeingequal,higherUSrateswouldrenderemerging-marketassetsrelativelylessattractivetoinv
8、estors.¶MarketsarepricinginthechangeinUSmonetarypolicywellaheadoftheevent:evenonceQEisphasedoutaltogether,thefirstriseintheFed’spolicyratetargetisprobablytwoyearsaway,andinthissenseinvestorsareconflatingaredu
