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1、外文翻译：Stock:ExpectedandunexpectedreturnTobegin,forconcreteness,weconsiderthereturnonthestockofacompanycalledFlyers.Whatwilldeterminethisstock’sreturnin,say,thecomingyear?Thereturnonanystocktradedinafinancialmarketiscomposedoftwoparts.First,thenormal,orexpected,returnfr
2、omthestockisthepartofthereturnthatshareholdersinthemarketpredictorexpect.Thisreturndependsontheinformationshareholdershavethatbearsonthestock,anditisbasedonthemarket’sunderstandingtodayoftheimportantfactorsthatwillinfluencethestockinthecomingyear.Thesecondpartoftheret
3、urnonthestockistheuncertain,orrisky,part.Thisistheportionthatcomesfromunexpectedinformationrevealedwithintheyear.Alistofallpossiblesourcesofsuchinformationwouldbeendless,bethereareafewexamples:NewsaboutFlyersresearchGovernmentfiguresreleasedongrossdomesticproduct(GDP)
4、TheresultsfromthelatestarmscontroltalksThenewsthatFlyers’ssalesfiguresarehighertanexpectedAsudden,unexpecteddropininterestratesBasedonthisdiscussion,onewaytoexpressthereturnonFlyersstockinthecomingyearwouldbe:Totalreturn=expectedreturn+unexpectedreturnR=E(R)+UWhereRst
5、andsfortheactualtotalreturnintheyear,E(R)standsfortheexpectedpartofthereturn,andUstandsfortheunexpectedpartofthereturn.Whatthissaysisthattheactualreturn,R,differsfromtheexpectedreturn,E(R),becauseofsurprisesthatoccurduringtheyear.Inanygivenyear,theunexpectedreturnwill
6、bepositiveornegative,but,throughtime,theaveragevalueofUwillbezero.Thissimplymeansthatonaverage,theactualreturnequalstheexpectedreturn.Risk:systematicandunsystematicTheunanticipatedpartofthereturn,thatportionresultingfromsurprises,isthetrueriskofanyinvestment.Afterall,
7、ifwealwaysreceiveexactlywhatweexpect,thentheinvestmentisperfectlypredictableandbydefinition,risk-free.Inotherwords,theriskofowninganassetcomesfromsurprises-unanticipatedevents.Thereareimportantdifferences,though,amongvarioussourcesofrisk.Lookbackatourpreviouslistofnew
8、sstories.SomeofthesestoriesaredirectedspecificallyatFlyers,andsomearemoregeneral.Whichofthenewsitemsareofspecificimportancet
