石油服务与设备：J.P. 摩根能源会议之思考

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1、OilServices&EquipmentThoughtsfromtheJ.P.MorganEnergyConferenceCompleted21Jun201802:16AMEDTDisseminated21Jun201803:20AMEDTNorthAmericaEquityResearch21June2018WewrappedthethirdannualJ.P.MorganEnergyConferenceinNewYorkyesterdaywith~140energycompaniesparticipating.Company-specifictakesfor2

2、8OFSstocksareinside.Whattheeventmayhavelackedintermsoffireworks(theweekremainsyoung-ish,giveOPECanotherdayorso),itmadeupforitwithseveralfocusedmessagesondiscipline,returnsandcashflowgeneration.Earlydatashowsequityinvestorparticipationwasupmodestlyy/y(~10%),thoughoverallinvestorattendanc

3、ewasdown~10%.Meetingrequestsjumped20%whileJPMdelivered10%more1:1s.Comparedto2017,thegapbetweenthemostrequestedandaveragecompanieswasupconsiderably,consistentwithouranecdotalexperienceofasizableupliftingeneralistsandlongonlyPMs.NewfoundenthusiasmforservicesstockshaslargelypassedoverNAMon

4、shoreplaysandcenteredonlatercycleoptions(LNG,int’l/offshoreequipmentanddrillers).NAMonshoreexecsplayedtheirtraditionalroleof“thelasttoknow”withrespecttopotentialactivitydisruptionsfromPermiandifferentials.Thenagain,asidefromtheplainlybearishenergydedicateds,mostinvestorsandCEOsconcedeth

5、erangeofoutcomesiswide,iflimitedfromatimeseriesperspective.Execswerefairlycoyon2Qprogressbutbodylanguagesuggestedonshorestockswillmostlyclearconsensusexpectations(notthatweexpectanyonetocare).E&Psalsomostlygaveuswhatweexpected(capitaldisciplinelipserviceandconfidenceingettingPermianprod

6、ucttomarket).TheintegratedmodeltookanothersignificantstepforwardwiththeEquinorawardstotheBigThree.Afterasolidstartto2018,2Qhasbeenfrustratingfromastockperspectiveaswehavebeenlargelyoffsideonourratingsasrelativevaluebetweenshortandlongcyclegappedoutevenmore(+1-2xto+7xon2019EBITDA).Ourneg

7、ativerevisioncallfor2018appearswell-founded(withmoretorun),andthoughweexpectgeneraliststocontinuetoflirtwithoffshoreexposuresnearterm,weprefertoleanintothemarketonselectonshorestocksthatwethinkcouldrerateasthemarketgetssomeclarityonPermianbaselineactivityin2H18.Buyingstockswith