j.p.摩根-亚洲能源下半年展望

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1、ScottLDarlingAsiaPacificEquityResearch(852)2800857819July2017scott.darling@jpmorgan.comTableofContentsAsiaEnergyIdeas.....................................................................3CNOOC–UpgradedtoOW......................................................5AsiaCommoditiesecos

2、ystem.................................................9Sensitivities............................................................................10AppendixI:EPSadjustedforFY17E-19E;updatingpricetargets...............................................................................

3、......12Regionalprices.......................................................................13AsiaupstreamFY17capexdown6%y/y..............................15SummaryofRecommendations............................................16EPSandPTchanges.....................................

4、.........................17Oilmacro:OPEC+Shale=‘Callonoffshore’falling;JPMLToilpriceloweredto$55/bbl..............................................18Asianoilproductdemandgrowthsteady............................22Naturalgas–robustdemand;LNGmarkettighterthanexpected................

5、..................................................................26Refiningoutlook–multipleyearsofrefiningconsolidationgivingrisetoimprovedmargins...........................................32Chemicaloutlook–upsidetoPP,BZ,PVCandRubber.....37Transferinvaluefromolefinstoderivative

6、s?.......................38RegionalAsiaenergyvaluation............................................41ChinaBlueChemicalLtd........................................................42CNOOC....................................................................................45InpexCorpo

7、ration(1605).......................................................48PetroChina-H.........................................................................51SinopecCorp-H....................................................................53SinopecShanghaiPetchem-H................

8、.............................56EquityRatingsand