美股-金属与采矿业-北美金属与采矿业：驾驭周期

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1、FOCUSNorthAmericaMetals&MiningMasteringtheCycle;InitiatingCoverageINITIATINGCOVERAGEEquityResearch9October2018BarclaysBankPLCand/oritsaffiliatesisprovidinginvestmentbankingservicestoRandgoldResourcesLimitedinrelationtothepotentialmergerwithBarrickGoldCorporation.Theratings,pricetarget

2、sandestimates(asapplicable)onRandgoldResourcesLtdasissuedbytheFirm’sResearchDepartmenthavebeentemporarilysuspendedduetoBarclays’roleinthispotentialtransaction.NorthAmericaMetals&MiningPOSITIVEfromN/AForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage

3、2.InitiatingcoverageontheNorthAmericanminingsectorwithapositiveoutlook:Thecurrentdollar-positivemacrodynamichastakenitstollonminingequities,offeringinvestorsanattractiveentrypointtothesector.Goldisnowacheaprisk-offhedgeinaperiodofrisinguncertainty,andcopperfundamentalsremainhealthy.Mean

4、while,miningequitiesaregenerallyingoodshapewithbalancesheetsrepairedandcapitalallocationpracticesthehealthiesttheyhavebeeninyears.Thecapitalcycleremainsinitsinfancy:Theminingcapitalcyclehasmovedfromeuphoria(2006-2012),tofear(2013-2016),andintoprudence(2017-2019).Withaccretiveinvestmento

5、ptionsremainingscarce,companiesarefocusingonfreecashflowgeneration.Whileweseethesupply-demanddynamicasrelativelybalancedthrough2020,supplychallengesarejustoverthehorizon.Giventheminingsector’slongproductionresponsetimes,weseethepotentialforamulti-yearbullcycleahead,particularlyforcopper

6、,whichremainsasectorwithastrongdemandgrowthstory.Smartcapitalallocationisthekeyfactordrivingvaluecreation:Webuiltavirtualcompanyrunbyacomputerprogramtotestcapitaldeploymentstrategiesunderstochasticcommoditypricemodels.OurproprietaryMonteCarloanalysissuggestscompaniesthatsteadilydeployca

7、pital,ratherthantimethemarket,cangeneratesuperiorreturnsoninvestedcapitalandtotalequityreturns.Thekeytoexecutingthisapproachisfocusingonminingcampswithsignificantgeologicpotential,buildingvaluethroughexploration,andsyndicatingmegaprojectsratherthanmakingbigstand-aloneinvestment