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1、29January2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchMetals&MiningUSMetals&MiningResearchAnalystsINCREASETARGETPRICECurtWoodworth,CFA2123255117curt.woodworth@credit-suisse.comPremiumLowVoltheBitcoinofBulks?PeterMitropoulos2123252703Justlikebitcointhereisafiniteamountofmetallurgicalcoalthatcanbepeter.m
2、itropoulos@credit-suisse.commined.Butunlikebitcoin,cokingcoalsupplyisoftenremovedfromthemarketowingtoavarietyofdisruptivefactors,beitweather,logistics,operational,orlabor.Thehighlevelofunderinvestmentinthesectoroverthepastfouryearshaslimitedthepotentialsupplyresponseinthecurrentmarketenvironmenta
3、ndthesupplychainhasbeenchallengedtopushminestorunathigherutilizationlevels.Ittakesroughly4-6yearstodevelopagreenfieldassetandmostminersarerunningtostandstillagainstdepletion.Weseeverymodestsupplygrowthoverthenextseveralyearsinthepremiumcokingcoalqualityspectrumandsolidglobalsteeldemandgrowthshoul
4、dkeepthemarket“skatingonthinice”,whichistosaymodestsupplydisruptionsshouldcontinuetohaveanoutsizedimpactonmarketprices.USswingsupplyisnotwhatitusedtobeandmostoftheincrementalsupplytomarketisinthehighervolarena.ThisshouldnotcausesubstantialimbalancestooccurinthepremiumLVmarket,butclearlywilldriveU
5、ShighvolandAtlanticbasinspreadstowidenversusPacificBasin.Chinacontinuestorationalizeitscoalsectorandisexperiencingmoreseveregradedeclinesandenvironmentalpressure.Atthesametimeblastfurnacedemandisrunningverystrong,drivingtheneedformorepremiumcokingcoal.Themovetoindexlinkedpriceswillalsocausetheglo
6、balmarkettomoreorlesspaytheChinaprice,whichweseesupportedbyhighlocalcosts,depletionofhighqualityreservebases,environmentalpressures,andstructuraldemandshiftstomodern,portaccessibleblastfurnaces.WeareincreasingourmetcoalpriceforecastandearningsestimatesandpricetargetsforTeck,Warrior,andRamaco.Weno
7、wforecast2018premiumLVcokingcoalpricesof$175/tonneand2019pricesof$150/tonne.Weseelongrunpricesinthe$130-140/tonnerange.Sectoroutperformancehasbeendrivenprimarilybyexpectationsrebasingformid-cyclevalues,inourview,asoppo
