亚洲硬件洞察：套管行业.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch29October2018EquitiesAsiaPacificEx.JapanTechnologyHardware&EquipmentAliceChenAnalystalice.chen@ubs.com+886-2-87227343ArthurHsiehAnalystarthur.hsieh@ubs.com+886-2-87227348NicolasGaudoisAnalystnicolas.gaudois@ubs.com+852-29715681HikaruMizunoAnalysthikaru.mizuno@ubs.com+81-3-5208620

2、7JimmyYuAnalystS1460517080002jimmy.yu@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668880TaewooLeeAnalysttaewoo.lee@ubs.com+852-29716873RyanJinAssociateAnalystryan.jin@ubs.com+852-29717454AsiaHardwareInsights:ThecasingsectorDividedmarket:ApplenamestooutperformstrugglingAndroidiPhonethewinnerinmetalcasings;BuyCaset

3、ek;SellBYDEWelowerour2018metalcasingindustryrevenueforecastby1%andintroduceour2019forecastwitha5%YoYdeclineafter13%/1%YoYgrowthestimatesin2017/2018,duemainlytothedecliningASPsformetalpartsusedinAndroidsmartphones.Underamorechallengingenvironment,weexpectonlysharegainersintheiPhonesupplychaintode

4、liverstronggrowthwhilemetalcasingmakerswithhighAndroidexposurecouldfaceseverpricingpressure.Wethinkthemarket'sfailuretodifferentiatebetweenAppleandAndroidproducerscouldbethrowingoutinterestingopportunities.Withthemetalcasingsegmentistradingat9x2019EPE(a25%discounttohandsetcomponentssegment),weth

5、inkApplesupplierCasetekisparticularlyattractive.WehaveBuyratingonCasetekwithaPTofNT$70.00andaSellonBYDElectronicswithaPTofHK$8.00.WeexpectoversupplyinAndroidmetalpartsandmorepricingpressureWeexpectoversupplyinmetalcasingforAndroid,givenexcessindustrycapacityandweakerdemand.WeestimatetheASPforAnd

6、roidmetalpartsin2019couldbe25-50%lowerthanforpreviousdesigns,givenlowerentrybarriersandshorterproductiontime.Inparticular,weseeriskformetalcasingmakerswithhighexposuretoChinahandsetOEMswhoseflagshipmodelsareallshiftingfromtheunibodymetalbackcovertoglassbackcoverwithasimplemetalframe.Positivetren

7、dforiPhonecasingWithhighercontributionfromstainlesssteelmetalframe,weexpectmetalcasingmakersforiPhonetofurtherincreasetheirblendedASPin2019.Giventhelimitednumberofcapablesuppliers,weexpectstrongearningsgrowthforleadingmakers