亚洲地区-股票策略-亚洲股市季度洞察

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1、8October2018EQUITYSTRATEGYASIATHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)abcAsiaEquityInsightsQuarterlyDarkclouds,silverlining4Expecttighterdollarliquidityuntilnextyear,whenitbecomes

2、clearthattheUSFed’sinterestratecycleisclosetoapeak4Tariffrisksoverstated–lowvaluationsandportfolioholdings,sharebuybacks,androbustEPSgrowthareallpositivefactors4Wesee3%upsidetoAsianequitiesinfull-year2018eand13%in2019eDollarliquidity.AslongastheUSFedkeepshikinginte

3、restrates,theimpactoftighterdollarliquidityonAsianequitiesisunlikelytoease.ReliefshouldcomenextyearwhenitbecomesclearthattheUSinterestratecycleisclosetoapeak.Fornow,near-termoutperformancewillbedifficult.Valuationsarelow.Asiatradesat11.8xPE,abovethetroughofc10xin20

4、15and2008whenearningswerefalling.TodayEPSgrowthisrobust–consensusforecastsc13.5%growthin2018(weassume12%)and10.9%in2019e.Wealsoseesupportfromrisingdividends,sharebuybacks,andlowlevelsofforeignportfolioholdings.Newindextargets.AssumingstablePE,wesee3%upsideforFY18e.

5、Weintroduceour2019indextargetandsee13%upside,reflectingrobustearningsgrowth,Chinapolicyflexibility,highercommodityprices,andnear10-yearlowHSBCCOUNTRYWEIGHTINGSCountry/RegionHSBCweights(previous)ThailandHongKongChinaSingaporeKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesTaiwanIndonesiaP

6、akistanIndiaJapanoverweightoverweight(neutral)overweightoverweightneutralneutral(overweight)neutralneutral(underweight)underweight(overweight)underweight(neutral)underweightneutralSectorHSBCweights(previous)FinancialsoverweightEnergyoverweightUtilitiesoverweightTel

7、ecomoverweight(neutral)TechnologyneutralConsumerStaplesneutralConsumerDiscretionaryneutral(underweight)Materialsneutral(underweight)IndustrialsunderweightHealthcareunderweight(neutral)Source:HSBCrelativevaluations.Thesefactorsshouldoffsetconcernsabouttradetensions.

8、StillpreferChinaoverIndia.WhileouroverweightstanceonChinahasbeenpainfulastheimpactofdomesticpoliciessurprisedonthedownside,wethinktariffrisksareo