地震人员伤亡风险预测与控制分析

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1、EarthquakeCasualtiesRiskPredictionandControlThefieldofearthquakedisasterpreventionandmitigationresearchprioritiesisoneofthetopicsovertheyearsintermsofurbanearthquakedisastersimulationmodelstudieshaveachievedfruitfulresults．Anearthquakewhichisdevastatingandunpredictable，iscausedtoagreatthreat

2、tOhumansurvivalinthenaturalphenomenon,instantlycausegreatdamagetOsociety，andthemostpainfullossislossoflife．Thenumberofcasualtiesisvarywidelydifferentforanyearthquake．Ifcasualtiescanbeaccuratelypredicted，itisveryimportantforshockproofandemergency．Thispaperstudiestheriskfactorsofearthquake，pre

3、dictscasualtiesandfurthercontroltOreducecasualties．Thatonereasonableestimateaboutdamagelossisveryimportanttoimproveriskmanagement．Theearthquakepreparednessandpost—earthquakeemergencyareimplementationofaneffectivemeansofriskcontr01．Firstly，thepaperstartforidentifycasualtiesriskfactorsoftheear

4、thquake，suchasearthquakeintensity，originaltimeofearthquake，Populationdensityinseismicdisasterarea，andcompensationofbuildingdamageandSOon，Secondinvestigatepresentsituationathomeandabroad，analysisofseismiccasualtyrisk，thencollectiondataofdisasterinformationinrecent20yearsaboutdestructiveearthq

5、uake，anduselinearregressionanalysistObuildingtheRapidEvaluationModelbymainfactorsofthecasualties，whichshouldbevalidatethemodeluntilitisavailableforearthquakeearlywamingsystem．Third，dividethedateintothreeclassuptOearthquakemagnitudeinthefollowingthispaperdiscussingtheriskmeasures．Toreducecasu

6、alties，makescorrespondingcountermeasureslikereasonablerationalofmaterials，emergencyevacuationorImprovetheseismicfortification．LastthemodelWasappliedinFujianProvinceearthquakedisasterofrapidassessmentsystem，likesimulatingofallearthquake，Predictingtheriskoflossofcasualtiesanddevelopingappropri

7、ateemergencyneeds．Keywords：riskmanagement，casualtyPrediction，linearregressionanalysis，controlmeasuresofcasualty目录l绪论⋯．。．．⋯。⋯。．．．．。．．⋯．。．。．．．。。．⋯。。。。。。．⋯。。．。。．。。。．．．．。。⋯。。．⋯11．1选题依据和背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯。11．2研究目的和理论意义⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．z1