瑞信-全球-机械行业-全球机械行业策略分析-2019.4-24页

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1、WHAT’SCOOKIN’INMACHINERYANDENGINEERING&CONSTRUCTIONFROMATOZFCATALYSTWATCH4/1ChinaTruckData4/4BrazilTruckData4/2NATruckOrders4/5BakerHughesRigCount4/3EIAPetroleumStatusReportWHAT’SHOTANDWHAT’SNOTMachinery:Investorinterestontheimpactsoftherecentfloodsinthefarmbeltispickingupasitrelatestoim

2、plicationsforfarmequipmentdemand.WewouldnotetheSenatedisastersupplementalhasseveralbilliondollarsforflooddamage(roughly~$13.5BaccordingtoourWashingtonteam),andabout$3BofthatisfundingforUSDAtohelprepairdamagedfarms,infrastructure,andruralcommunityfacilities,plusfundingspecificallyforcropl

3、osses(toputthenumberinperspectivethiscomparestoUSDAfarmincomeforecastof~$69Bfor2019).Onasimilarnote,TITNreportedQ4resultsthisweekanddespitenotingstronggrowthinAG,up11%inQ4drivenbyreplacementdemand,thecompanyisonlyguidingflatAGsalesinFY’20whileacknowledgingthattheweatherhascreateduncertai

4、nty.Inothernews,WBCunderperformedthegroupthisweekwiththestockdropping10%followingtheannouncementofadefinitivemergeragreementwithZF.ZFwillacquirealloutstandingsharesofWBCfor$136.50pershareinanall-cashtransactionforanequityvalueof>$7B.ThedealhadbeenhintedinlateFebruaryasWBCdisclosedthatthe

5、companyhadengagedinpreliminarydiscussionsconcerningapotentialtransactionwithZF.Still,theagreedpricewasa6.5%discounttowhereWBCwastradingbeforetheannouncementofthedeal,suggestingthemarketwasassigningahigherprice.Thedealwasastrategicresponsefromthecompany’sboardinthefaceofadvancedtechnologi

6、essuchasautonomyandelectrificationthatwillrequireveryhighlevelsofinvestmentaswellasscaleintheupcomingyears.TheneedforscalealsoimpliesneedforgreaterconsolidationandWBCdecidedtobemoreproactiveonthatfront.Mgmt.alsonotedthatnootherpartiesexpressedinterestinthecompanyfollowingtheleakinlateFeb

7、ruary.ToppicksDE,CAT.Engineering&Construction:TheE&Cgroupoutperformedthebroadermarketthisweek,ledbyMTZup~6%.OntheLNGfront,itwasreportedthatconsortiumsofFLR/JGCandMDR/Chiyoda/SaipemsubmittedbidsthisweekonExxonMobil'sRovumaLNG(MozambiqueArea4),withapreferredcontractorslated